The decline and decline of Rishi in the next PM betting
The Betdata chart shows how those considered by punters as being in with a chance of becoming next PM have moved in the betting over the past three months.
The big story is very clear. Chancellor Sunak who was rated by the betting markets as a 42% chance at the height of “Partygate” has now edged down to just a 21% one. He’s still favourite but nothing like as strong.
Johnson has made it very clear that he won’t stand aside which means Sunak first needs Tory MPs to launch a successful no-confidence bid on Boris.
The main requirement for Starmer to become PM Is that the incumbent remains in place until the general election in which the Tories lose their working majority which by my count means 47 seat losses.
Starmer has moved from a 12% chance to a 16% one over the past quarter.