Today’s budget could be the trigger for a Tory poll lead
We all know that there has not been a CON poll lead since the start of December and one of the current active betting markets is on whether such a move will happen in March. As I write it is 36% chance on Smarkets.
What generally happens at budget time is that there is a lot of publicity for the Chancellor. For the two or three days after his big speech he and the government get a reasonable amount of positive coverage in the media. In the past this has seen the government party edge up a notch in the polls. It is only by the weekend that things can untangle.
Well I’ve had a small bet on Smarkets that this will now happen before the March is out.
This is also a huge day for Sunak’s leadership aspirations. A well received budget that puts the Tories back in the lead might be the trigger that focuses Tory MPs on the leader and my £20 November 2019 bet at 250/1 might just come good.
My usual caveat – bets are not predictions but my assessments of value.