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It’s not a good time for Democrats right now, but it’s going to get a lot worse. Nothing in Biden’s approval rating or other key indicators have changed my view from last November that the midterms coming up this year will see Republican gains – probably enough to give them control of both the House and the Senate. Yet that doesn’t mean nothing is going their way. In the purple state of New Hampshire, their incumbent Senator is looking pretty…

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Just 4 weeks from today we will be analyzing and processing the whole range of election results that are being voted on the day before. There are four broad areas – elections in the three national regions (Scotland/Wales/NI) and the English local elections which are, on the face of it, in good territory for LAB. A major segment is set to be the London boroughs and elsewhere in England there are interesting contests in a range of council areas which…

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As far as what used to be called the broad sheets are concerned there is no doubt what the main story of the day – the tax status of the wife of Chancellor Sunak. However you try to spin this it just looks bad that the spouse of the man in charge of running the economy and the government’s finances should be able to pay far less UK tax because of her non-dom status. It is not helped by the…

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One of the ways that French election law operates differently from other countries is that opinion polls are banned for the final two days of the campaign. So the polls that will be published tomorrow will be the final ones and be those which will determine how well each pollster has done. You can see the logic behind the French approach but I doubt whether such a measure would get support in the UK. Arguably the way elections are operated…

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Not good figures for such a controversial move Given how controversial Johnson’s plan for Channel 4 is then this latest polling is hardly going to help his move. This is especially the case because of the reported level of opposition from Tory MPs and the need to get the bill through the House of Lords. It is not helped that the minister responsible, Nadine Dorries, was not certain about C4s ownership when she appeared before a Commons committee. This is…

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Now at lowest level since becoming Chancellor The figures from Ipsos-MORI are really quite dramatic. These are Favourable: 26% (-10 from March) Unfavourable: 44% (+11) Net: -18. Undoubtedly he has had a very bad couple of weeks since his Spring Statement and it is hard to see how he recovers. His position is not helped by his billionaire wife’s Russian links. Quite whether the once superstar of Tory politics is going to recover from this is hard to say. Could…

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The big UK political betting story in recent weeks has been the decline of Sunak In the next prime minister market. Starmer now has a clear lead and the gap is getting wider. Above though is a chart showing the next CON leader betting which has an even greater fall-off in betting support for the Chancellor who is coming under fire at the moment for his wife’s Russian links. My guess is that there won’t be a change in CON…

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Macron still the red-hot favourite For all the poll movements and questions over Macron he is still leading in all the surveys and UK punters still rate him very highly. But the 93%+ betting chances of a month ago have passed and he is now an 81% punt. No doubt someone will correct me if I am wrong but in previous French elections it has been illegal to publish opinion poll details in the final phase of the campaign, Last…

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