A chance for a LAB to win back a red wall seat? This afternoon’s conviction of the man elected at GE2019 as the Tory MP for Wakefield opens the possibility of there being a parliamentary by-election in the seat . The MP, Imran Ahmad-Khan who now sits as an independent, has been found guilty of sexually assaulting a teenager and whether he remains an MP is dependent on the level of sentence he receives. If he gets a prison term…
The French election rather overshadowed the latest Political Pulse from Ipsos (now without the MORI tag) and above are its latest favourability ratings. This is how Sunak’s have moved over the past year. Essentially Sunak has now moved to the same sort of favorability ratings that other leading Conservatives have been getting. One thing is for sure – the Rishi exceptionalism of earlier in the year has come to an end.
With £5m so far traded on the main Betfair French election market alone this looks set to be the biggest political betting event of the year. Only the US midterms in November might top it. As can be seen by the chart Le Pen reached her betting peak just before the first projected results came in. Since then it has been downhill. Compared with the final French polls Macron appears to have done better than that predicted by almost every…
So as predicted its Macron v Le Pen yet again after Macron wins by a slightly bigger margin than expected We now move to the final runoff two weeks on from today. My big longshot bet for the final two, Melenchon, got pretty close but not quite enough. My guess is that the lion’s share of his supporters will back the incumbent in the next round.
My expectation for today has been the lower the turnout the more damaging it would be for Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon whilst being great for Marine Le Pen. So the 12pm CST release from the Ministère de l’Intérieur was useful to know, with turnout 3% lower at the equivalent stage in 2017. The tweets from Mathieu Gallard do add an important caveat, the 12pm figure isn’t usually indicative of the final turnout figure. However based on the 12pm figure,…
How will the pandemic impact the next general election? When it comes to predicting and betting on the next general election Covid-19 is what makes me unconfident about the election. Hopefully the pandemic will be over with no scary vaccine evading variants by the time of the next election, but the legacy of the pandemic is likely to be with us for years to come. The most obvious legacy will be the backlog in the NHS caused by the pandemic,…
But could a low turnout change that? After what can only be described as a lackluster Presidential campaign France goes to the polls tomorrow with predictions of a very low turnout. In that situation, we could just be in for a shock. Tomorrow decides which two of the 12 contenders go through to the final runoff two weeks on Sunday. One poll last week found 54% of people said they felt it hadn’t really started. A factor here is that…
It comes as something as a shock to look back to January when Chancellor Sunak’s “Number 10” chances were riding high and he was approaching evens in the Next PM betting. Since then it has been almost all downhill and he is currently rated as an 11% chance by the betting markets. Even that appears to be far too high. Now the speculation is growing about whether he can hang on to the Chancellor’s job. His Spring Statement only a…