politicalbetting.com

What we know from past experience is that local by-elections in the run-up to the main May local elections can give a reasonably good indicator about what might happen If this is indeed the case on May 5th then the results overnight were particularly worrying for the Tories who saw losses to LAB, the LDs and IND. One of the things that makes local elections so challenging is that turnouts are low and local party machines that can get energise…

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TSE

Feeble CON MPs haven’t the bottle to stop them The PM and Chancellor are going to brazen it out. That much is clear. An apology, a reference to all the other much more important work that needs to be done, Ukraine, a hope that MPs and voters are weary of it all, the happy coincidence that Parliament is not sitting, and so on. It is likely to work for now, even if opinion polls show a certain amount of buyer’s…

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Savanta’s poll was BEFORE the lockdown fines A giant 26 percentage point drop in net favourability for Rishi Sunak makes him less favourable than Boris Johnson, according to the latest April edition of Savanta ComRes’ political tracker.  The public reaction to the Chancellor’s Spring Statement and controversies over his wife’s non-domicile tax status will contribute to the plummeting ratings, although fieldwork for this latest poll concluded before news broke about the Chancellor, and the Prime Minister, being issued with Fixed…

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So Johnson and others in Downing Street appear to have survived being fined for not following the strict regime that they set up to fight COVID and punters make it almost an evens chance he’ll make it through to 2024 as PM. Looking at other potential hurdles that the PM has to surmount if he is to stay in his job the next one is set to be the period after this year’s local elections. These take place just three…

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Do they support their lockdown-busting boss or not? It has now been nearly three hours since the new came out that Johnson, Sunak and Carrie are amongst those being fined by the police for not following the strict Covid lockdown rules by attending a party in May 2020. Inevitably each will be pressed to have view because this is one they cannot duck. My guess is that each is trying to work out how this is going to impact on…

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Even the strongest supporters of jury trials accept that sometimes juries get it wrong. Or, rather, the prosecution and defence cases and/or the conduct of the trial were so poor that the jury could not help but come to the wrong (guilty) verdict. So there is nothing wrong – if you believe that a miscarriage of justice has occurred – to campaign for its overturning. If people, including MPs, had not done this – many infamous miscarriages of justice (from…

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