No more polls after tomorrow in the French election

No more polls after tomorrow in the French election

One of the ways that French election law operates differently from other countries is that opinion polls are banned for the final two days of the campaign. So the polls that will be published tomorrow will be the final ones and be those which will determine how well each pollster has done.

You can see the logic behind the French approach but I doubt whether such a measure would get support in the UK. Arguably the way elections are operated in France means that polls are more important at this stage.

A total 12 contenders made the final shortlist when it was published at the start of March and perhaps just three of them will get double-digit first-round totals. In the final days the strongest candidates hope to pick up support from those far behind and, of course, that is largely determined by the polls.

The top two go forward to the final runoff. On the far right Marie Le Pen seems to have won the battle with Eric Zemmour and we have seen the latter’s numbers decline as Le Pen’s have edged upwards.

Macron himself is very much a centrist and his main appeal is that he is not Le Pen. That’s why I still expect him to take the crown.

Mike Smithson

Comments are closed.