Above are the latest betting odds from the Smarkets exchange on the two outstanding by-elections both of which were Tory held at the last election. If LAB do do it in Wakefield it will end a by-election gain famine for the party which has continued since they took Corby from the Tories in 2012. I am less sure of Tiverton & Honiton because the period of LD strength in SW England really came to an end at GE2015. They are…
1) MACKINDER AND THE HEARTLAND Between 1909 and 1943 geographer Halford John Mackinder outlined the Heartland theory which goes like this. You can split the world into three parts: The World-Island (Europe, Asia, and Africa combined), the Offshore Islands (British Isles, Japan, etc) and the Outlying Islands (North America, South America, and Oceania). The World-Island can in turn be split into three: the Heartland (approx the Soviet Union), the Southern Heartland (basically Africa), and the Rimlands (the bits between the…
Who would have thought only 6 days ago that we would be having a by-election in the Devon seat of Tiverton and Honiton with the LDs as red hot favourites? The pace and the betting has been quite extraordinary given that at GE2019 the LDs came in third 46% behind the Tories. From my perspective the big way of telling whether Davey’s party is in with a shout is if the LDs decide to make it a priority and their…
As a long-standing gambler on elections, I’ve always found the day itself to be somewhat odd. The betting speculation reaches a crescendo, and judging by the betting exchanges the punting itself does so too. But it’s the only day for months where we don’t actually get any new information to update our predictions. This causes endless speculation on turnout trends, and we should really stop. The fog of law No opinion polls are released on election day, either for legal…
In N Shropshire the yellows started 53% behind Until the coalition after GE2010 the LDs generally had a good record in this seat and if there is a by-election Davey’s party would fancy its chances. When they are in with a shout they are able to put together big effective campaigns like we saw in N Shropshire and Chesham & Amersham last year. No other party in recent times has been able to run a by-election ground game as effectively…
Or is resignation inevitable? After all the speculation over the past few days we now know that the CON MP caught watching porn while in the Commons Chamber was Neil Parish – member for Tiverton and Honiton since GE2010. The big question is can he survive as MP? He’s already lost the Tory whip and the next few days we’ll see whether he can hold on. I make it about a 50-50 chance. In normal work situations being caught watching…
There is a new poll out from Ipsos which has LAB with a 5% lead which is no change. As is the normal practice with the firm their regular poll each month comes out with an array of different charts and analyses. The one I am highlighting above shows the quite extraordinary change in the fortunes of Rishi Sunak since August 2020. It will be recalled that he had for a long period been the main name in the frame…
I really love this betting chart on Johnson’s exit date which gives a snapshot of how those like me who bet on politics view his survival chances and are prepared to risk money backing their views up. For long periods the chances of him surviving the year have looked unlikely but judging by the latest movement punters now make him carrying on until 2024 or later the favourite. It was always said when things looked very bad for the PM…