LD making gains in Blue wall – LAB not making progress in Red wall
Starmer could be the leader in trouble The above is the summary from John Curtice of the way things are going so far.
The election day betting moves to a 2022 Johnson exit
Above s the latest betting chart on the year of Johnson’s exit. As can be seen the prices have drifted a touch during polling day and now 2022 is just favourite. The Tories are saying they expect losses of 500+ seats which just seems like expectation management. The two things to look for overnight are the National Vote Share projection and whether vulnerable Tory-led councils do in fact change. Remember a large number of councils are holding their counts tomorrow…
Moves against abortion could help the Dems in the midterms
By far the biggest political development in the United States in the last few days has been the leak of an opinion by one of the justices of the Supreme Court which looks as though US abortion lights laid down more than half a century ago in the case of Roe v Wade could be limited. This comes just 6 months before November’s midterm elections when the Republicans were hoping to make big gains taking back control of the Senate…
What’s this chart going to look like on Friday?
Thursday’s elections take place against a huge amount of speculation about the future of the man who won the 2019 general election for the Tories. After partygate and other issues that have raised questions over Johnson he badly needs the Tories to do better than expectations in the elections. My view is the big problem for the Tories is not leadership but the growing evidence that people are getting poorer at a time when the new higher NI tax levels…
Short Odds, Strong Nerves – Local Election Betting 2022
On ‘Election Eve’ it is traditional for some cheeky punters to stick a small mortgage-worth of cash onto a sure thing to try and bag a quick if small return. Apparently during the week of a general election even seats as short as 1/100 see 5 figure bets on this basis, since in theory the annual equivalent ROI of such a bet is very good. Browsing the local election odds over the last couple of days, I think there are…
Ohio, Ohio, Ohio – Measuring Trump’s Chances
There is an election today, and it might be rather a consequential one. Yep: it’s the Republican Senate Primary in Ohio, and it’s going to give us an early glimpse into Trump’s ongoing popularity with ‘the base’. Because the three leading candidate represent the three different strands within the GOP: Firstly, there’s Trump (and family) themselves. This is represented by JD Vance, the Hillbilly Elegy author, Peter Thiel acolyte, and onetime never-Trumper. Well… he’s the thrown his lot in with…
LAB to gain Wandsworth but fail to take Westminster
Latest betting on Thursday’s local elections Almost since I began running PB in 2004 the two councils that have dominated discussion of the London local elections have been Wandsworth and Westminster and as can be seen punters on the Smarkets exchange think that LAB will take the former but fail in the latter. Overall there is a 92% chance according to the betting that LAB will come out on top on the BBC’s National Equivalent Vote share. There are markets…
Vulnerable and quadruple jabbed yet I still got COVID
Quite a number of PBers have been contacting me to ask how I am after reporting here during the Easter weekend that I had contracted COVID. Well it took just over a week but I am pretty much over it now. My wife still has it and remains infectious. The worst part was the unbelievable splitting headache. This was relieved a bit for an hour or so by Paracetamol and Codeine but then I had to wait for five or…