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Polls are not static and we are potentially thirty-three months away from the next general election so there’s a lot of time for things to change and with Boris Johnson is hoping he is a cross between The Bee Gees and and Mr Micawber, Stayin’ Alive in the hope that something will turn up, however my view unless this polling changes by the next election then Sir Keir Starmer will become Prime Minister, especially as the Conservatives appear to be…

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Midterm elections are golden opportunities for opposition parties to gain seats. The Republicans have their sights on winning several senate seats from the Democrats, as well as retain some competitive states where long-standing Senators are standing down. So why do so many of their candidates suck? Take Pennsylvania for example. Pat Toomey has been the Republican Senator since 2010, after previously being a Congressman for 6 years. Now he is standing down, and the top candidates to replace him are…

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Johnson’s position as PM is looking increasingly precarious and there’s been a fair bit of betting activity on the next CON leader market. With the longstanding perceived “heir apparent” Sunak flopping last month other names have edged up with currently the man who got beaten by Johnson in 2019, ex-health Sec Jeremey Hunt, now in the favourite slot. He’s closely followed by Tom Tughendhat who has never held a ministerial position and Liz Truss. DefSec Wallace, who is regarded as…

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The final polls look clear We have not covered much the final round of voting in the French presidential election which takes place on Sunday. The reason is Macron’s victory looks very assured and this is reflected in the final polls which by French law were published late last night. As can be seen Ipsos has Le Pen 15% behind which is by far the worst survey for her. The best for the far right challenger has her just 6%…

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What we saw with the approach to yesterday’s Commons move to have an inquiry into whether BJ has been honest with the House was that the initial Tory plan went out of the window. There simply was not the support of Tory MPs to back a wrecking amendment to Labour’s motion and so in the end there was no vote. This was a huge sign of weakness that will likely be remembered. The PM’s team cannot take the support of…

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From PBer Cicero close to the Russian border (This was posted on the previous thread from a longstanding PBer) Greetings from a weary but determined Estonia. The official outlook is that we are likely to have a pretty “challenging” summer, and the latest expulsion of all Baltic diplomats in St. Petersburg and Pskov underlines the total collapse of relations with Russia. It is quite probable that the border will be closed soon. The entry of Finland into NATO before the…

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The Smarkets betting exchange is staging an event next Wednesday, April 27th, on this year’s local elections. These take place a fortnight today on May 5th. The venue will be at the Smarkets offices in London where last month PB held its 18th birthday party. If PBers would like to attend please drop an email to politics@smarkets.com. I hope to be there provided I’ve recovered OK from COVID. Mike Smithson Given the increasing political imp

As I reported a couple of days ago I am self-isolating because I have contracted COVID. As a result I am watching a lot of TV and the one fortunate thing about this has been the timing which coincides with the launch of the Netflix series “Anatomy of a Scandal” based on Sarah Vaughan’s novel. This is a courtroom drama where the defendant is an MP and minister (I assume Tory) who is accused of a rape in a lift…

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