Ladbrokes have just reported that 63% of the next PM bets they’ve laid this week have been on the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak. He’s now a very tight favourite in the betting. All this assumes that there will be a vacancy and that he would win the ensuing leadership election. But Johnson is sitting tight and the only way he’s is going to be pushed aside is if there’s a vote of confidence that he loses. So unless there’s the unlikely…
One thing we have learned this past week is that Johnson is not going anywhere of his own accord. For him to cease to be PM is going to require Tory MPs to act – first to have a confidence ballot and then for the MPs to decide by a simple majority that he should go. We have seen over the past few days that the Johnson team is going to go to great lengths to keep their man at…
Johnson Jan 2022 Corbyn before GE2019 The above Wikipedia tables show how the ratings collapse that Johnson has experienced is not that much different from how his foe at GE2019, then LAB leader Corbyn, was seen by voters. In fact Johnson’s lowest net rating is even worse than Corbyn’s There is little doubt that Johnson is facing a huge challenge as he tries to deal with the reports of what went on at Number 10 during the toughest lockdown period…
There is little doubt that Downing Street has mounted a big operation in the past couple of days to stop a no-confidence move against the Prime Minister. As we all know party managers are tasked with ensuring that 54 CON MPs don’t request a confidence ballot and we have no idea what the current totals are. Inevitably when so much is at stake and the incumbent is determined to stay then some of the persuasion tactics in the Commons are…
In polling carried out this week Redfield and Wilton asked the question – which of Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson would “be the better PM at the moment”. The results are quite striking and we have not seen anything like this before – certainly since I started PB eighteen years ago. For in a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 42% say Rishi Sunak and 24% say Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister….
What happens if the Gray report is not black and white? One thing that the events of this week has reinforced in my mind is how tough it can be to get rid of a PM who is really determined to stay. The current incumbent is not going to go quietly and will use everything in his considerable armory to hang in there. The front page of the Telegraph this morning is even suggesting that he might not stand aside…
Who would have thought only a couple of months ago that LAB would by mid-January be totally dominating CON in the House of Commons and have double digit voting intention leads? Yet there has been a total change. In the leader ratings as well Johnson has dropped sharply and in the past week in one poll to minus 48%. while Starmer is hovering around evens and in one or two polls is in positive territory. Johnson won against Corbyn at…
Just before PMQs, I think this could be one of the grimmest ever PMQs for a Prime Minister in a long time, I don’t have enough popcorn for this. The most important question. Is this the first of many? This red wall polling might focus minds. TSE