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There is an election today, and it might be rather a consequential one. Yep: it’s the Republican Senate Primary in Ohio, and it’s going to give us an early glimpse into Trump’s ongoing popularity with ‘the base’. Because the three leading candidate represent the three different strands within the GOP: Firstly, there’s Trump (and family) themselves. This is represented by JD Vance, the Hillbilly Elegy author, Peter Thiel acolyte, and onetime never-Trumper. Well… he’s the thrown his lot in with…

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Latest betting on Thursday’s local elections Almost since I began running PB in 2004 the two councils that have dominated discussion of the London local elections have been Wandsworth and Westminster and as can be seen punters on the Smarkets exchange think that LAB will take the former but fail in the latter. Overall there is a 92% chance according to the betting that LAB will come out on top on the BBC’s National Equivalent Vote share. There are markets…

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Quite a number of PBers have been contacting me to ask how I am after reporting here during the Easter weekend that I had contracted COVID. Well it took just over a week but I am pretty much over it now. My wife still has it and remains infectious. The worst part was the unbelievable splitting headache. This was relieved a bit for an hour or so by Paracetamol and Codeine but then I had to wait for five or…

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Above are the latest betting odds from the Smarkets exchange on the two outstanding by-elections both of which were Tory held at the last election. If LAB do do it in Wakefield it will end a by-election gain famine for the party which has continued since they took Corby from the Tories in 2012. I am less sure of Tiverton & Honiton because the period of LD strength in SW England really came to an end at GE2015. They are…

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1) MACKINDER AND THE HEARTLAND Between 1909 and 1943 geographer Halford John Mackinder outlined the Heartland theory which goes like this. You can split the world into three parts: The World-Island (Europe, Asia, and Africa combined), the Offshore Islands (British Isles, Japan, etc) and the Outlying Islands (North America, South America, and Oceania). The World-Island can in turn be split into three: the Heartland (approx the Soviet Union), the Southern Heartland (basically Africa), and the Rimlands (the bits between the…

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Who would have thought only 6 days ago that we would be having a by-election in the Devon seat of Tiverton and Honiton with the LDs as red hot favourites? The pace and the betting has been quite extraordinary given that at GE2019 the LDs came in third 46% behind the Tories. From my perspective the big way of telling whether Davey’s party is in with a shout is if the LDs decide to make it a priority and their…

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As a long-standing gambler on elections, I’ve always found the day itself to be somewhat odd. The betting speculation reaches a crescendo, and judging by the betting exchanges the punting itself does so too. But it’s the only day for months where we don’t actually get any new information to update our predictions. This causes endless speculation on turnout trends, and we should really stop. The fog of law No opinion polls are released on election day, either for legal…

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In N Shropshire the yellows started 53% behind Until the coalition after GE2010 the LDs generally had a good record in this seat and if there is a by-election Davey’s party would fancy its chances. When they are in with a shout they are able to put together big effective campaigns like we saw in N Shropshire and Chesham & Amersham last year. No other party in recent times has been able to run a by-election ground game as effectively…

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