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From Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus Cambridge mathematician and creator of Electoral Calculus, Martin Baxter, has produced an extraordinary 16k sample that seeks to assess what would happen if LAB, the LDs and the Greens entered into an electoral pact whereby only one of them would field candidates in each seat at a general election. The broad results are in the panel above. His pollster, Find out Now, conducted the survey amongst residents of England and Wales over four days…

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One of the problems about winning a big General Election majority is that it creates a large group of MPs who came in last time and feel very insecure whenever the party gets into troubled waters. Many of the surprise winners had to endure the huge disruption in their lives that becoming an MP entails and quite a large proportion never really believed they would be there in the first place. This is a group that follows the polls very…

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The most thought provoking article I’ve read in 2022 is the piece in Friday’s Times by James Forsyth which suggested the Tories would be more damaged by Starmer winning the next election but being short of a majority than Starmer winning a majority. Forsyth’s logic is compelling If the Tories lose the next election, changes to the voting system (always demanded by the Lib Dems) may see them locked out of office for a generation. And what happens if the…

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Looking at who current Green voters may vote for One of the more interesting and complicated things in predicting the next general election is how current Green voters will vote. Labour’s hope is to reawaken the progressive alliance which is the bedrock of the Anyone But The Conservatives (ABC) alliance which allows tactical voting to damage the Conservatives, most spectacularly in 1997. If Labour want to feel confident about winning the next general election they will need to work hard…

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Is this more about the general election than June 23rd? The LDs have chosen retired Army Major, Richard Foord to be their candidate in the June 23rd Tiverton & Honiton by-election where the Tories are defending a 24k majority that was achieved at GE2019. The party wasn’t even in second place then yet the money has been piling on the party following the announcement of their selection. Since the announcement, the LDs have moved up in the betting to a…

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As far as I can see Ipsos is the only pollster that screens its samples by educational attainment and I have been meaning to produce a chart like this for months. This is based on yesterday’s poll. It is repeatedly said education is a big factor and with some focus on the proportion of graduates in each constituency. Tiverton and Honiton has only about the average proportion of graduates but has a much greater proportion in the “other qualifications” category….

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But was that 1% lead poll an outlier? We have had a spate of polling in the past few days the most marked one has been YouGov’s 8% LAB lead which had CON just 1% behind after the local elections. The LDs now are doing very much better than they were a few months back when getting into double figures was a rare event. The most consistent numbers have been for the Tories in the low 30s. YouGov’s 31% share…

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