One of the things that I think is important when looking at polling is to dig deeper and observe the trend. We all know that statistically individual polls do have a chance every so often of being out and this is why I really appreciate tables like the ones above from YouGov. Looking at the trends in tables like the above is more revealing. Of all the leadership questions the one I like the most is favourability and a few…
The betting exchange, Smarkets, has just put up this market in anticipation perhaps of what might happen once MPs have all digested the Gray report. For me what makes betting on a Johnson loss good value are the market rules which state: This market relates to the result of any no confidence vote in Boris Johnson held by the Conservative parliamentary party. This market will be void if no vote is held in 2022. My reading is that the 54…
So many opinions. So few facts. In the spirit so ably demonstrated by our PM over his life, let’s apply a little fiction to our current politics. Vanity Fair – updated for our times Boris: Truly the Becky Sharpe of our age. Determined to achieve the highest position in society he can, no matter what the cost to others. Cunning, sharp and ruthless. But attractive too and a shape-shifter – adapting his persona to whatever is needed to get him…
This is not a market I am betting on but I show it here because it is the issue of the moment. Tonight there’s a BBC documentary with reportedly quite remarkable reports of what was happening in Number 10 when the rest of the nation was locked down. This is from the BBC: For the first time, insiders who were at some of the events have told BBC Panorama in detail what they saw. They describe arriving for work the…
The last time there was an opportunity to oust Johnson was in January though at the time there wasn’t the strength of opinion to carry this through. With the Gray report coming out in the next couple of days there is never going to be a better moment to get rid of the current leadership. For Tory MPs this is about saving their party and saving their seats and there can be little doubt that without Johnson at the helm…