Johnson trails Starmer by some margin on favourability

Johnson trails Starmer by some margin on favourability

One of the things that I think is important when looking at polling is to dig deeper and observe the trend. We all know that statistically individual polls do have a chance every so often of being out and this is why I really appreciate tables like the ones above from YouGov. Looking at the trends in tables like the above is more revealing.

Of all the leadership questions the one I like the most is favourability and a few years back I played a part in getting YouGov to make this a regular tracker.

When comparing Johnson and Starmer one thing is clear the proportion of people with a view on Starmer is significantly lower than with the current PM. Clearly, a PM is always going to get a lot more media coverage than an opposition leader because what they say or do will impact on the public much more than his/her opponent.

Having noted that and assuming now that Johnson is there for the duration the fact that he is behind should concern him and his party.

My view on the next general election is that it is hard to see how the Tories under Johnson win another majority. Another leader could transform things. Remember how well Gordon Brown polled in the three months after he replaced Tony Blair in 2007.

Mike Smithson

Comments are closed.