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Here we are, nearly 6 months on from that tearful resignation by poor inaptly-named Allegra. Since then we have had the PM’s Captain Renault-like shock at the revelation of parties at No 10 during lockdown, leaked photos, apologies to the Queen, an internal investigation, an off-then-on police investigation, numerous apologies to Parliament, accusations of lies to the Commons, a PM and his Chancellor paying a fine after being served with an FPN over attendance at a birthday party in Cabinet,…

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Unlike the previous thread this is about betting on who will be the Prime Minister after the next general election whenever that is. I think that at current prices Starmer is a good bet simply because it will not take too many seat losses for the Tories to be deprived of their majority. As I have argued before the Tories could lose power even if they end up with more votes and seats. Their problem is that it is going…

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This is really about whether there will be a change of Prime Minister ahead of the next general election which of course is due to take place in 2024. The greater it seems likely that there will be no change at the top in the Tory Party the greater the chances punters will see of Starmer being the next PM Starmer’s price would drop sharply I would suggest if it becomes clear that Johnson might face a leadership challenge –…

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One of the features of Boris Johnson’s approval ratings over the last few months is that however bad it has got with younger voters he has been in positive territory amongst the oldies. That has now come to an end. The above chart is based on the latest Redfield & Wilton polling where the fieldwork took place in Monday – so it is totally up to date. As can be seen it is the middle-aged who are most disapproving of…

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Remember Eastbourne in 1990 So far there has been no reaction on the Johnson exit date markets to the two by-elections that are due to take place on June 23rd. It is almost as if the likely Tory losses are factored in, But what if the Tory performance is far far worse then anything that is being envisaged? Could that send the parliamentary party into a panic? In many ways Westminster by-elections are much closer to home for MPs than…

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It’s a 66% betting chance that the Tories will lose both Given the extraordinary level of resources that parties put into key by-elections, I am a bit surprised that the Tories have chosen to hold them on the same day – Thursday, June 23rd. Maybe the view is having two lots of bad news at the same time might be more easily forgotten. If the betting markets have this right then there’s a strong odds-on chance that both will be…

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For 5 years every by-election winner has been female Westminster by-elections don’t come round very often but when they do the main parties put in a big effort to defend or gain seats. A key factor in a race is the candidate and party machines go to great lengths to ensure that the person they select is right for the seat and for activists to get behind. At the weekend the LDs made their choice for Tory-held Tiverton and Honiton…

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