Unlike the previous thread this is about betting on who will be the Prime Minister after the next general election whenever that is.
I think that at current prices Starmer is a good bet simply because it will not take too many seat losses for the Tories to be deprived of their majority.
As I have argued before the Tories could lose power even if they end up with more votes and seats. Their problem is that it is going to be much harder for them to find partners if they lose their majority. They are uncoalitionable.
Based on current polling there will be Tory direct losses to LAB and my guess is that the SNP will pick up seats from them in Scotland. Also the LDs should make progress in what is being termed “The Blue Wall” – Tory held seats that voted Remain and where there are a higher than average proportion of graduates.
At GE2019 the Tories had a GB vote lead of just under 12% over LAB and 33% over the LDs.