At least one PBer, surely, will know when the last time that the Tory party lost two Westminster by elections on the same day. If the Smarkets betting above is correct two CON losses look like a near certainty barring a major upheaval in UK politics. All the signs are that LAB will take back Wakefield which was lost at GE2019. A Honiton and Tiverton the LDs have been very tight odds-on punts – a situation that hasn’t changed since…
But Hague disagrees Unless the 1922 Committee Chairman Brady is sharing detailed information with the Deputy PM, which I very much doubt, it is hard to see how he can make his prediction. Doing the round of talk shows this morning Raab was emphatic that Johnson won’t face a confidence vote next week, and the people he calls Tory rebels haven’t got enough names to trigger a ballot. Given the other noises that are coming from the parliamentary party this…
With just a possibility that we might soon be seeing a Conservative leadership contest the former Health Secretary and the one who made the final two last time, Jeremy Hunt, is now the clear favourite. Last time he was in the runoff with the membership and did a fair bit better than most people expected. Under the Tory rules contenders go through a series of ballots with MPs to decide which two names should go forward to the membership. He…
With the drip-feed of Conservative MP’s coming out against Johnson carrying on as party leader and PM, the BoJo exit date betting has taken a turn. 2022 is now favourite for his departure from Number 10. There’s increasingly a view that Johnson will have to face a confidence ballot at some stage – something that’s triggered when 15% of CON MPs or more write calling for such a vote. Even if this doesn’t happen immediately what could act as the…
Every month as we all know the Conservativehome website carries out a survey of its party member readers to find out their views including the regular cabinet satisfaction ratings. The latest survey is featured above and as can be seen the PM and current occupant of Number 10, Boris Johnson, is rated with a net satisfaction level of minus -15%. By a long-distance these are the worst numbers for anybody on the list. Remember that those who took part in…
Two public servants: both in the autumn of their careers; both “Sirs“; both in the legislature; both facing important decisions. How are they approaching this and how are they being treated? The first is Bernard Hogan-Howe, Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, between 2011 and 2017. His time as Met Commissioner was not, it is fair to say, an unalloyed success. During his time in office, the Met launched two high-profile investigations into sex abuse cases: Operation Yewtree and Operation Midland….
From ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer The style of the cartoon here will be nostalgic for longer-standing PBers – it comes from Marf, whose work often used to adorn PB columns. She’s flourishing and pursuing other careers, but I asked her to do one for my local CLP for old times’ sake. We’re using it to recruit new members from among “things are awful but what can one do?” people, who are really rather a large slice of the electorate these…