I have just been rethinking my betting on the June 23rd by-elections because there must be a possibility now that Johnson isn’t going to survive. Without him at the helm then the whole Tory proposition will be different and we cannot rule out a boost for the party in the polls. Those of us old enough to remember the end of Tony Blair as Labour leader in 2007 will recall how the party’s position was transformed for a few months…
The most dangerous period for Johnson was never going to be the publication of Sue Gray’s report but the polling reaction to it and this evening we have the first survey carried out fully since the document came out. As will be recalled previous R&K poll carried out on Monday had the Tories 6% behind. Four days later the same pollster has the LAB lead at 9%. The big question is whether other pollsters who will be reporting in the…
Only days ago it was being described as “UnConservative” With the price of energy soaring at an incredible rate the government have at last given into pressure and is introducing a windfall tax on the companies that are seeing their profits soar by the change. The PM has been particularly stringent in his opposition to such a move describing it as UnConsrrvative up to only a few days ago. Yet today, in the aftermath of the Gray “partygate” report we…
One of the things that I think is important when looking at polling is to dig deeper and observe the trend. We all know that statistically individual polls do have a chance every so often of being out and this is why I really appreciate tables like the ones above from YouGov. Looking at the trends in tables like the above is more revealing. Of all the leadership questions the one I like the most is favourability and a few…
The betting exchange, Smarkets, has just put up this market in anticipation perhaps of what might happen once MPs have all digested the Gray report. For me what makes betting on a Johnson loss good value are the market rules which state: This market relates to the result of any no confidence vote in Boris Johnson held by the Conservative parliamentary party. This market will be void if no vote is held in 2022. My reading is that the 54…