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It increasingly looks like Johnson will remain Just cast your mind back to the end of January when “partygate” was at its height and the prevailing assumption was that Johnson would not survive with the likely successor being Rishi Sunak. That’s not happened. Johnson set up the Gray investigation which was then taken up by the Met all taking the immediate sting out of the whole business. For the fact is that Johnson is going to fight hard to retain…

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The Indy is reporting that Starmer now has his highest “Best PM” yet in its latest poll for the online newspaper. This follows, of course, the attempts by Johnson to link him with Jimmy Saville. The latest survey records 39% saying the LAB leader would be best PM which is 3% up on the previous high. Johnson is on 31%. The same poll records a sharp drop in Sunak’s net Favourability score down by seven 7% since last month to…

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It is not often that one story totally dominates the front pages and this morning the deal that Prince Andrew did to put an end to the sex assault claims is all over all the papers. Only the Times does not make it the lead story. There is a lot of detailed examination of the actual wording of the statement that was issued and the Palace must really hope that this is an end to the matter. Buckingham Palace would…

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I have referred to this Redfield & Wllton regular poll question before – how do those sampled rate Sunak against Johnson on who would make the better PM – because it is one that could impact on Tory MPs as they try to decide whether to stick with Johnson or have another leader and PM. When asked would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment 41% say Rishi Sunak (up 1%) and 28% say Boris Johnson…

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The next big question in “partygate” is whether the prime minister will actually face fixed penalty fines by the police for lockdown violations. There has been some interesting speculation about what would happen if he doesn’t actually get fined and how the public will react. For that could reignite the “one law for us one law for everybody else” narrative that has driven the sharp decline in Johnson’s ratings. Not only would it just reinforce all the public anger it…

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The above table is of the BBC’s Projected National Vote Shares that is computed by leading political scientists in the hours after the May local elections. This projection is used each year so we can get a better sense of how well the parties are doing compared with the previous year when a whole different lot of local elections were taking place. This is because there is a four-year cycle of local elections with different groups of seats coming up…

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This is a market that we have not looked at for a few weeks and as can be seen from the chart the situation remains largely unchanged on the betting markets. Most of the money is going on a Johnson exit in 2022. Clearly all of this will be shaken up whenever we see the results of the police investigation into whether the prime minister broke the lockdown regulations in 2020. There are those who argue that any sanction against…

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