The Russian proposals – at least something is on the table

The Russian proposals – at least something is on the table

Above is a screen grab of the latest move today in the Ukraine crisis – the Russians setting out what they would agree to for a peaceful outcome. To my mind the hardest one there is the third which it is very difficult seeing the Ukrainians agreeing to. It is also I would suggest the real reason why Putin has taken this massive gamble. What really irks with him is that Ukraine, which used to be part of the USSR,…

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Macron looking even more a certainty to win re-election next month

Macron looking even more a certainty to win re-election next month

For the others the race is about positioning for 2027 in one sense the Ukraine crisis could not have come at a better time for the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, who is seeking to secure a second term in the French Presidential elections next month. He’s been the Western leader who has been taking the lead with linkages with Vladimir Putin as the efforts continue to try to bring Putin’s invasion to a halt and to return to normality….

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Sunak and Truss drop sharply in the next PM betting

Sunak and Truss drop sharply in the next PM betting

It is extraordinary to note the huge changes that have taken place over the past 6 weeks in the betting for next prime minister. As can be seen from the chart the big losers in the eyes of punters have been Chancellor Sunak and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. Basically things have changed because of the recovery by Boris Johnson and the fact that a Conservative leadership contest looks far less likely this year. This hasn’t been helped by the invasion…

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The Lebedev peerage affair looks set to derail the Johnson recovery

The Lebedev peerage affair looks set to derail the Johnson recovery

This afternoon Keir Starmer demanded that Westminster’s intelligence and security committee should probe the circumstances in which Johnson made Evgeny Lebedev a peer of the realm. The Guardian reports: The demand came after a fresh report that the intelligence agencies had reframed an assessment that Lebedev’s appointment would pose a security risk following an intervention from the prime minister in early 2020.Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday Morning, Starmer said he was very concerned: “There’s at least the suggestion that the government…

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How different pollsters ask the “best PM” question

How different pollsters ask the “best PM” question

Does the format impact on the outcome? One of the standard polling questions that the vast majority of political opinion polls ask is on respondents’ preference for prime minister. These are how the different pollsters approach it: Opinium: “Which, if any, of the following people do you think would be the best prime minister?” BMG Research: “If you had to choose between the two, who would you prefer to see as the next Prime Minister?” YouGov / Survation: “Which of…

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The French election: Mélenchon to make the runoff looks a value bet

The French election: Mélenchon to make the runoff looks a value bet

A look over the odds and latest polls All he needs to do is to make Jadot a nice offer and he will be in a strong running. On the assumption he accrues all the Jadot vote share (and none of anyone else’s, such as Poutou’s), he will be 5% ahead of 3rd-placed Le Pen (Ipsos), 0.5% behind her and 2.5% ahead of 4th-placed Pécresse (Ifop), and 2% behind her and 3% ahead of Pécresse (OpinionWay). Zemmour and Pécresse would…

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Eurovision punters are on a rollercoaster ride

Eurovision punters are on a rollercoaster ride

Ever since the Russian invasion I’ve been asked several time by friends and family if there is betting on the outcome. Quite rightly: There is not. However, while I appreciate some people might find even this column too close to the line, I want to discuss Eurovision 2022. Previously available at odds suggesting they would just make up the numbers, Ukraine have shot to favourite status in the last fortnight. They sit at just over 2/1 at the exchanges and…

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