The big thing about the two by-elections is that LAB hardly tried in Tiverton & Honiton while the LDs did the same in Wakefield. So both opposition parties lost their deposits in the by-election that they didn’t win. The Tories, meanwhile, were in second place in both. A question is whether the high level of tactical voting in these and other target seats for the LDs and LAB will carry over at the general election. My guess is that it…
The big problem the PM and his team have this afternoon is that yesterday’s by-elections were worse for the party than expectations. Inevitably the focus is on whether Johnson can survive. He is indeed fortunate that there was a confidence vote on him two and a half weeks ago and under the current rules there cannot be another one amongst this parliamentary party until June next year. At the time of this month’s vote, cynics were suggesting that Number 10…
The big message from the results overnight is that voters are wanting to get Johnson out and will go with the party that is most most likely to achieve that objective. Thus the LDs had their historic recording-breaking victory in Tiverton and Honiton but went on to lose their deposit (getting less than 5%)in Wakefield. In the latter LAB the party had its expected gain from the Tories while it was LDs who lost their deposit. So the notion of…
While LAB look certain to win Wakefield
What’s going to be the impact of tactical voting? Perhaps the worst news for the Tories that could come out of today’s Westminster by-elections is Labour losing its deposit in Tiverton and Honiton while the Lib Dems lose there’s in Wakefield. For undoubtedly much of the Tory success at the last general election was down to the anti-Tory vote being split in key constituencies. If voters who are opposed to Johnson get smart and seek to maximise the effectiveness of…
You have to go back to November 7th 1991 to find a day when the Tories lost two Westminster by-elections on the same day. These were the LAB gain of Langbaurgh and the LD gain of Kincardine and Deeside. These were the last by-elections of the 1987-1992 Parliament. John Major went to the country five months later and won a surprise small majority winning back these two seats in the process. As to the latest contests you can no longer bet on…
The Smarkets Tweet hits the nail on the head. It is hard to recall Davey’s party not winning when they have been very competitive in a Westminster by-election. They are helped by being able to attract hundreds of activists from all over the country when there is the sniff of victory. That certainly is what has happened ahead of tomorrow’s Tiverton and Honiton by-election. This is why the betting markets made them tight odds-on favourite right from moment the by-election…