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On Smarkets its a 97% chance there won’t be one The one British political betting market where we will see an outcome very soon is the Smarkets one on their being a CON poll lead in March. These are the market rules: This market relate to the headline, rounded percentage voting figures for UK or GB general election voting intention polls from the named pollsters. This market will be settled as a winner if any of the following polling companies…

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Laying the incumbent might just be a value bet The first round of voting in the French presidential election is just a week on Sunday. A total of 12 contenders will be on the ballot paper which decides which two go to the final runoff a fortnight later. In many ways this is a similar voting system for the Tory leadership in the UK when MPs vote to decide which two go forward to the membership. In the betting Macron’s…

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Surely after the move is by the Metropolitan Police against an initial 20 for their participation in lockdown parties then Johnson is making things worse for himself and his government by his defiant refusal to accept that wrongdoing took place. What this is doing is keeping the issue alive and getting even more media coverage. We saw in December and January how this impacted on the polls and his current strategy is dangerous for his future political career. Why not…

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There’s been very little betting reaction to the latest news of the party gate fines and we are going to have to wait until we know what is going to happen to Johnson. It is still an evens chance that his exit date will be 2024 or later. Rishi has had a bit of a rough ride in the next CON leader betting but this now appears to have settled down. I’m starting to think that Sunak’s time has passed…

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The big political news today has of course been the fines issued by police for those who attended gatherings in breach of the lockdown regulations in place in 2020. This, of course, follows the so-called “partygate” revelations. Although Johnson appears to have not been included it does raise serious questions over some of his assurances to the Commons that everything that happened then was in line with the regulations that were then in force. If so then how come so…

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How punters currently see the next general election Currently, according to the betting markets, there is a 73% chance that the election will take place in 2024. The Tories winning most votes is rated as 70% chance with the betting odds on most seats at 58%. No overall majority is seen as the 51% favourite to be the outcome with a CON majority at 36%. As to seats it is a 33% betting chance that the Tory seat total will…

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in less than 2 weeks time there will be the first round of voting in the French presidential election which decides which two of the 12 contenders go through to the final two a fortnight later. Until now we have tended to focus on the first round polling on the assumption that this is going to be a rematch of what happened in 2017 with Macron facing Le Pen. As can be seen from the chart 5 years ago Macron…

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Is DefSec Wallace a good bet? Having been bald myself since my mid-thirties I’ve always been conscious of suggestions that it could be a limiting factor in a political career. In the very early days of PB the Tories were onto their second bald leader in succession – IDS . He replaced Hague after the GE2001 disaster for the party and became the only CON leader in modern times to be booted out before he had even faced a general…

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