Poll of Tory councilors has Truss just 2% ahead
And LAB is 13% ahead in Savanta national voting poll 56% think the new PM should call an immediate election
The money goes on Truss to be PM after next election
12 days ago she was just a 5% chance My own view is that Truss punters are overstating her prospects because the challenge facing her is so much greater than Starmer. For the latter could be the post-election PM even if LAB has fewer votes and MPs than the Tories. We’ve observed several times here that the Tories will struggle to find partners to keep them in power if they come out with fewer than half the seats. The same…
More good polling for Truss
The contest’s over before a vote is cast The big challenges for Truss now are how she deals with Johnson and Sunak. She cannot allow it to appear that the outgoing PM is still playing an active role as no doubt he will attempt to do. Truss has to find a way of breaking the link which might be challenging especially as Labour will try to portray it as though she is the former PM’s poodle. What she does with…
Betting on a Tory poll lead in September
I have just had a bet at about 4/1 that the Tories will have a poll lead at some stage during September. My reasoning is that a new arrival at number 10 is going to be dominating the news in the first part of the and there’s just a possibility that this could help the Tories improve their position in relation to Labour in one or two polls at least. This will be helped, of course, by the exit of…
The first post of PB’s 6th White House race
At a 24% chance Biden’s a good bet for the WH2024 nomination While all the PB focus for months has been on UK politics we have done very little on what is generally the biggest political betting event of all – the US Presidential election the next of which takes place in 2024. This will be the 6th White House race to be covered on PB the first being in 2004. One of the big questions in US politics is…
Do the Tories know what they are getting with Truss?
Unless YouGov’s CON members’ polling has got it totally wrong then on September 7th the ex anti-monarchy campaigner, Liz Truss, will be more than happy to go to the the Palace so that the Queen can ask her to form a government. On that day the former Leeds comprehensive school girl, former Lib Dem, and former Remain campaigner will become Britain’s third female PM. Now the woman who is more than ready to rubbish her old school and switch parties…
Another reason why Boris Johnson had to go
That minus 90 net favourability rating that Boris Johnson enjoys with 2019 Tory voters who currently say they would vote Labour made me think it was a typo but that is the real figure, 94% have an unfavourable opinion of Boris Johnson whilst 4% of this demographic have a favourable opinion of Boris Johnson whilst. By contrast 7% of the public tell YouGov that they personally have seen a UFO. This is another poll that makes me think the Tory…
Dear Prime Minister, the trend is not your friend
Opponents of Boris Johnson will see this poll that shows 69% of the public want Boris Johnson to resign and think ‘nice’, but the most damning stat for Boris Johnson is that as many Tory voters wants him to go as stay, which as the tweet states about this is quite the change from the start of the month. The more we hear stories about Boris Johnson regretting resigning and/or planning a comeback in the future then I suspect the…