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I’ve generally avoided betting on all things related to a future Scottish independence referendum because back in 2014 I genuinely expected the issue had been settled for a generation and didn’t fancy tying my money up for decades. After the fun of the Theresa May exit date and the 2020 Presidential markets fiasco I am also keen to avoid bets where the bets are ill defined, ambiguous, or are randomly changed by the bookie after I’ve made the bet. After…

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Based on those YouGov findings Rishi Sunak’s leadership ambitions are as doomed as stepmother’s chances in succeeding in a Disney film yet there is one morsel of comfort for him. Despite Liz Truss having so many hefty leads over on so many topics yes Sunak has a 1% lead on which one looks the most Prime Ministerial, based on everything else you’d expect Truss to have a substantial lead on this question, perhaps Tory members realise Liz Truss is a…

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Chart from Betdata.io The chart above from Betdata.io reflects how badly Rishi Sunak blew his opportunity last night, it was his last major opportunity to damage Liz Truss before the ballots go out to Tory members. Past form suggests Tory members send their ballots back quickly so even if Sunak damages Truss later in the later hustings it won’t have much impact. I know betting markets have been spectacularly wrong before, but I don’t think so in this instance, based…

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I was asked to sum up tonight’s debate in word and I used the word unedifying as Rishi Sunak mansplained Liz Truss to within an inch of her life and Liz Truss displayed all depth of a puddle. Former republican Truss produced so many of Labour’s election posters and broadcasts tonight. I’m also expecting a YouGov poll on tonight’s debate. TSE

This should bugger up any plans for Boris Johnson to make a return. TSE

Sunak needs something to change the narrative With Tory members set to receive their ballot packs at the start of August real voting looks will start very soon. The experience of postal leadership ballots in all parties is that members don’t hang around. A large number vote within a day or so of getting the ballot forms. So time is running out for Sunak if the membership polling has this right. The series of hustings meetings being arranged throughout August…

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The clash, electorally, between Corbyn and Labour would be fascinating Jeremy Corbyn as mayor of London? Well I’ve read less fanciable stories in recent times however I don’t think Mayor Corbyn is likely. I do expect Sadiq Khan and other ambitious Labour politicians to ensure they are at Westminster in May 2024 in anticipation of Labour taking power sometime in 2024 so there could be an unexpected Labour candidate. With Priti Patel shamefully using the 2011 AV referendum result as…

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The prospect of Boris Johnson returning for a second stint as Prime Minister fills me with a sense of foreboding that is only matched by when my girlfriend asks to borrow my mobile phone or laptop but we have to brace ourselves for those scenarios happening. The Sunday Times isn’t alone in reporting that Multiple sources claim [Boris Johnson] believes he will one day return as prime minister, like his hero Sir Winston Churchill, who had two stints in No…

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