I know that Johnson is on his way out but what better way to get some good publicity than inviting the victorious England Woman’s soccer team to a special reception at Number 10. There’s a public expectation that they should be so honoured as we can see from the numbers in the YouGov poll. Now the decision has been made it is going to be hard to go back on it. Mike Smithson
A LAB lead varying from 1% to 14% It is very hard to draw any conclusions from the most recent polling seen in the Wikipedia table above. The reason, of course, is the very wide differences the various firms are showing. We have the UK’s most established pollster, Ipsos, which still uses the phone, reporting a 14% LAB lead while YouGov’s latest has it at 1%. One thing we are not seeing is “herding”. I’ve been writing about polling for…
This was her “Dementia tax” day So far it’s been just about the worst day for Liz Truss for some time on the betting markets. As can be seen she has slipped sharply though she is still an 81% chance. What we have observed are some of her weaknesses and she has had to do a complete u-turn on her plan to cut public sector pay. She proposed this morning that civil servants’ salaries be linked to living standards where…
Truss will never have a better opportunity Looking back to the last time a PM was replaced between elections, 2007, I often wonder whether the course of British political history would have been different if Gordon Brown had called an immediate general election after taking over Tony Blair in the June of that year. The arrival of the new Labour leader at Number 10 saw the party to see a remarkable turnaround in the polls which was broadly sustained until…
The betting for next prime minister is still very much dominated by the YouGov polling of Tory members that came out nearly 2 weeks ago. This had Truss with a very clear lead of 19% and it is hard to see how Sunak can overhaul it That was all before the TV debates and heightened media interest in the process to choose who will be Britain’s Prime Minister for when Johnson finally steps down in early September Polls can, of…
Now a 65% chance on Betfair I have a very long record of a failing ever to bet on the winner of the BBC Sports Personality of the Year so please take my advice here with great caution. As can be seen the English editions of the nationals this morning are totally dominated by England’s victory at Wembley yesterday. Beth Mead is currently the strong odds-on favourite to win this annual vote in December but there is a long way…