She doesn’t have a majority amongst current CON voters This is something that in all my years of studying and writing about polling that I have never seen before – a party’s supporters not even giving their leader an approval rating of 50% or more The above is from the latest Opinium poll for the Observer which was published last night and has a LAB lead of 19% on voting intention. What is significant about Opinium is that it was…
The chart above shows the changes in the the next general election overall majority betting and as can be seen LAB has a slipped a touch and now no overall majority is back as favourite. Given the scale of some of the Labour leads in recent polls then it is hard to see why why this move has happened. The Tories seem a long way from being serious General Election contenders though that course could still happen. Hopefully we will…
Remember key workers. We clapped for them a couple of years ago for a while. We were brutally reminded that it is not, in fact, the high and mighty, the wealthy and self-important, those with the most or those with the loudest voices, who make every day ordinary society work. It is the doctors, the nurses, the healthcare workers, the ambulance drivers and paramedics, the care home assistants, the bus and train drivers, the postmen, the supermarket workers, the farmers,…
Could there be an early exit for the PM? This should be worrying for Number 10 if only because it could encourage Tory MPs to initiate a confidence vote. It certainly chimes with just about every single Tory who has expressed a view to me. I’ve had a bet on a 2023 exit and have now put a little bit on her going this year. Mike Smithson
As can be seen from the betting chart Labour has never been favourite to have a majority at the next general election. We are in very new territory here. This comes after my post yesterday afternoon suggesting that this looked a value bet and one that I didn’t place! Clearly punters are reacting to the latest polling one of which gives labour a 33% lead over the Conservatives. I am sure that number won’t be sustained but you can see…
The special fiscal operation might be the greatest self inflicted wound since Emperor Palpatine allowed the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the second Death Star. From this YouGov poll Labour’s lead is fuelled by voters switching directly from the Conservatives, with 17 per cent of those who backed Boris Johnson in 2019 saying they would vote Labour. Just 37 per cent of 2019 Conservative voters said they were planning to stick with the party, suggesting a Tory wipeout if an…
Over the last year also I have been very cynical about the betting prices on a LAB majority. The scale of what Starmer faces is massive given that he starts on 202 seats and needs 326 to get over the line. . The Scottish situation remains what it has been since the Indy referendum and the idea of Labour getting back to the days when it held 40 of the 59 seats north of the border is simply not going…
Poll suggests 191 CON MPs could lose their seats After just three weeks and two days in the job punters are making a 2023 departure for her the favourite in the Liz Truss exit betting. In another betting market, it is now a 29.9% chance that Chancellor Kwarteng will be out this year. This really is quite remarkable and suggests that last Friday’s so-called “budget” was perhaps a big mistake. Making things a lot easier for the very rich at…