politicalbetting.com

Keir Starmer is seen most favourably, with 32% favourable and 39% unfavourable he achieves a Net score of -7. In comparison, the current Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, is seen favourably by 27% of Britons while 46% disagree, giving a score of -19.  Starmer’s numbers are unchanged from January but Rishi Sunak has seen falling scores (January: 30% favourable and 39% unfavourable). A similar number of the public are favourable towards Boris Johnson as Rishi Sunak (28% vs 27%). However, with…

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The collapse of Germany at the end of World War One was so sudden, and occurred without a yard of German soil being occupied by French, American or British troops, that a narrative sprung up: the country had not been defeated in battle, but had been stabbed in the back by a conspiracy of financiers, freemasons and Jews. Something similar seems to be happening with memories of the Truss-Kwarteng administration. It didn’t fail, it was stabbed in the back for…

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One of the constants in politics – more so from the Left – is how activists insist on telling voters that various events are “inevitable”. Somehow I’ve missed the inevitable triumph of communism. the inevitable collapse of capitalism and the inevitable collapse of civilisation due to warming/overpopulation/no oil ( take your pick ) .  The break up the UK has also been declared “inevitable” a meme pushed by assorted nationalists and the usual suspects on the Left and yet the…

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r Reform UK move to 10% Above is this month’s poll of the 40 RedWall seats from R&W. In these seats 39 were taken by the Tories at GE2019 – the other one, Hartlepool, waa gained in a by-election. Perhaps the most ominous finding for the Tories is that Reform UK are on 10%. A real worry for Sunak’s party must be the ability of Reform UK to peel off a fair part of its vote in a general election….

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Kate Forbes slumps to 12% The first couple of days in the SNP leadership betting has seen some very sharp changes as we see from the chart above. The biggest winner is Yousaf while Forbes drops to a 12% chance. Could it be that we soon end up with the leaders of both the Conservative Party nationally and the SNP being of Asian origin? Mike Smithson

The 2021 census data reported  that for the first time the catholic population was the largest religious group in Northern Ireland. Unsurprisingly Sinn Fein immediately began the push for a border poll. There was lots of noise and then towards the end of 2021 it all went quiet.  Perhaps one of the reasons for the silence was a series of polls conducted by the Irish Times sampling views on the centenary of partition. The Irish Times polled voters both north…

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Generally speaking we can partly explain poll shifts as being within the margin of error but not so with tonight’s R&W survey which came out this afternoon. As can be seen the Labour lead is up 6% on last week’s poll from the firm. Quite what has been driving this is hard to explain but these are the worst numbers from this pollster since Sunak became leader last October. This does not bode well for the Tories in the May…

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This was her Tweet and video announcing her move. Mike Smithson