With all the attention on Tony Blair there has been very little recently on Charles Kennedy’s position as leader of the Lib Dems. The party has been totally focussed on the June 10 European and elections and the general view is that they are going to do well. But are they? The locals should be good but will the Euro vote prove to be the disappointment that it was five years ago? A problem is that the Lib Dems always…
At the end of a difficult period for Tony Blair it’s tempting to bet on the Tories to win most seats at the General Election. The prices look good value and Labour is expected to take a real drubbing in the “Super Thursday” local, London and Euro Elections on June 10. The mood is being reinforced by the way Michael Howard has been able to pursue the Government on Iraq. As Robin Cook writes in the Independent today “Howard may…
The conventional opinion polls got the London Mayoral Election so badly wrong in 2000 over-estimating Livingstone’s support that it’s no wonder that they’ve mostly avoided this June’s battle. There were six main polls in 2000 which showed leads over Steve Norris ranging from 34%-57% when on the day the margin was just 11.9%. The smallest error was a staggering 22%. Apart from one ICM survey reported in February the polling this time has been left to the internet pollster, YouGov….
A new tool to help predict the next House of Commons My biggest ever political gambling loss was on the 2001 General Election because I had not thought through the issue of relating votes to seats – the critical factor in UK General Elections. I bought the Conservatives in the spread betting Commons seat markets because I believed that the opinion polls were wildly overstating the Labour lead and that the election would be much closer than was being predicted….
Unlike almost all the other political betting markets that we comment on we have refrained from making a call on the eventual result of the 2004 US Presidential Election because we have not had a clear view. But now we have come to the conclusion that Senator John Kerry can and will win in November. What has persuaded us is the view that Kerry will not win the election; Bush will lose it. The lacklustre performance of Kerry to date…
Party winning most seats at UK General Election. Our CALL is to wait until after the Euro and Local Elections on June 10 and then BACK LABOUR when the prices will be better. As happened last time the Tory Euro win had no impact on the General Election. The mood might be different now but the Westminster seat distribution means that the Tories need to be 7% ahead on votes to be equal on seats and they are nowhere near…
Heavy betting on Gordon Brown this morning made him favourite to be Labour leader at the General Election. This is the first time he’d been ahead of Tony Blair. The move was short-lived for technical betting reasons and not politics Two bookmakers were offering odds on Blair going that were so out of line with the betting exchange prices that it was possible to bet against Blair in one market and bet on him in another and be sure of…
Even though the terms of the new EU constitution have still to be agreed a UK bookmaker has now opened a market on which way the country vote in the referendum that was promised by Tony Blair last month. This seems to be totally premature. We do not know what the vote will be about, what the question will be and when the referendum will take place. The odds are not very encouraging on either side – 4/9 on “No…