A hung Parliament or Labour majority of 114 – which pollster do YOU believe?

A hung Parliament or Labour majority of 114 – which pollster do YOU believe?

Political gamblers seeking to call the next UK General Election are faced now with totally different pictures from the two opinion poll firms that were most accurate in predicting the 2001 General Election. On the one hand is YouGov that is suggesting a vote split that would lead to a hung Parliament with Labour 23 seats short of an overall majority. On the other there is ICM which is predicting a vote split that will lead to Michael Howard’s Tories…

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New speculation that Blair will stand down in the summer

New speculation that Blair will stand down in the summer

There’s speculation by Simon Carr in the Independent this morning that Tony Blair might be planning to step down in the summer – after his 10th anniversary as Labour leader. This date has been mentioned before and in December there was much talk of some deal being done with Gordon Brown at that famous reconciliation dinner hosted by John Prescott after Gordon Brown returned from maternity leave. It will be recalled that Brown returned to work with a series of…

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Why is Blair running scared of June 10?

Why is Blair running scared of June 10?

Given the core mathematics of the next UK General Election that make it so difficult for him to lose why is Tony Blair making such a big deal of the June 10 elections for the European Parliament? Why is he mortgaging his short-medium term political future with the commitment for the referendum on the Euro constitution? Sure June 10 2004 is not going to be a good day for Labour. The last time the Euro seats were fought, in 1999,…

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Is Bush really in trouble?

Is Bush really in trouble?

After a week away on business in the US I’ve returned to the UK more convinced more than ever that the Bush-Kerry race in November is going to be very tight even though the latest batch of polls has Bush back on top. The Bush campaign is attacking Kerry’s policies such as threatened hikes in gasolene taxes. In contrast the Kerry campaign is focussing on the qualities of their candidate trying give to give positive reasons to vote. People are…

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Steve Norris and politicalbetting.com

Steve Norris and politicalbetting.com

It’s inevitable as politicalbetting.com gets known that candidates running for office are going to use what’s said here if they think it to their advantage. The website of the Steve Norris campaign in London has included some of our observations on the opinion polls. When we make a call here we do so because we believe that on the basis of the evidence the chances of something happening are less than the current betting odds. Our objective is solely to…

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The Monday Call – a 100% record

The Monday Call – a 100% record

The first Politicalbetting.com Monday Call, a week ago, has been 100% accurate in predicting political betting market movements. All the BACK calls have shortened in price or the bets are no longer available. The Markets, the Trends and the Calls UK General Election The main UK General Election market has seen a small shift to the Tories during the week. Two bookmakers are now offering 1.28 on Labour and the betting exchange price is 1.31. As we’ve said repeatedly do…

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Betting Odds search engines – best for political betting

Betting Odds search engines – best for political betting

The third post on the ways of politcal betting looks at at the traditional bookmakers where getting the best price used to be laborious and time-consuming and involved switching between upto 20 sites. But that’s all changed with the emergence of the betting odds search engines. These link to the online bookmakers, continually scan prices in each market, and then present them on the screen in an easy to digest table. The odds search engines end once and for all…

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Political spread-betting – on the decline

Political spread-betting – on the decline

The second of a series of posts looking on the different forms of political gambling looks at spread betting which before the exchanges were fully established was about the best way to make interesting and profitable political bets. The spread firms take a market such as the number of seats will Labour win at the General Election and offer a spread of prices. Currently it is 332-342. If you believe that Labour will get more then you BUY at, say,…

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