The first Politicalbetting.com Monday Call, a week ago, has been 100% accurate in predicting political betting market movements. All the BACK calls have shortened in price or the bets are no longer available.
The Markets, the Trends and the Calls
The main UK General Election market has seen a small shift to the Tories during the week. Two bookmakers are now offering 1.28 on Labour and the betting exchange price is 1.31. As we’ve said repeatedly do not be tempted to back any party other than Labour. The way the Westminster boundaries are drawn mean that Tony Blair has a massive cushion of seats before the Tories get a look in. We think the market will move to the Tories a notch or two more after the June 10 local and Euro elections and you should wait until then before BACKING Labour.
A General Election bet that might work is to back the Tories on a betting exchange and then lay the bet fully when the price, as predicted, tightens. Thus if you placed £100 on at the current 4.3 you would make a £100 if the price slipped to 3.3. With the current strong Tory price we see little risk in this bet – provided you offset the bet by laying the full amount after Labour’s expected poor performance in the June 10 local and Euro elections.
In the Number of Labour Seats market for the next UK General Election we said BACK last week at the open-ended price of 4.5 for 335 seats and below. This bet is no longer available and seems to have been withdrawn by the bookmaker. We had felt this to be good value because the bookmaker had not factored in the reductions in the number of Labour seats in Scotland which will take away at least ten from the overall national total.
The speculation about a Euro referendum in the UK before the General Election could have an impact on the party leaders markets. One of my favourite bets is LAYING “Tony Blair & Kennedy” to still be party leaders at the General Election. You win if either or both go and there is enough noise about both to make anything less than 1.9 good value. BACKING Gordon Brown at 4.1 to be Labour leader at the election looks a worthwhile bet.
In the Betdaq Year of General Election market our call was BACK the 1.9 on 2005. Nobody is now laying on that year. If layers come back into the market BACK at anything above 1.5.
UK General Election
London Mayoral Election – June 10 2004
In the London Mayoral race we suggested that the prices of 11 on both the Tories and Lib Dems were good value. These have now dropped one or two points. Although the chances of either winning are much lower there are layers about and and the art is to get the highest price you can. At this stage BACK on anything above 9 on either.
US Presidential Election November 2 2004
In the US Presidential Election the price on John Kerry has, as predicted here, moved downwards. Last week 3 bookmakers were offering 2.5 – now three are offering 2.37. This is still good value – BACK.
For profitable political betting keep following the Monday Calls.
NOTE: When we make a call we are stating that we believe that the chances of something happening are better than the odds that are available.
All prices quoted are as at time of posting.