Monday Call – June 14 2004

Monday Call – June 14 2004

Euro results meaningless – but YouGov looks set to win the pollsters’ test For political gamblers the Euro elections results are almost totally meaningless. There were no betting markets and all they showed is that people vote differently for the European Parliament (above) than they do domestically – as is markedly demonstrated by the completely different vote shares from the same voters on the same day in the local elections. Thus in the two sets of elections on Thursday almost…

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Was the postal voting experiment a Labour own goal?

Was the postal voting experiment a Labour own goal?

NOTE: Post updated 0815 Sunday In an astute comment last weekend the Independent on Sunday political columnist, Alan Watkins, had this to say about postal voting:- What is surprising is that the venture was embarked on at all. For the wisdom of the wise in Labour circles was always that postal voting benefited the Conservatives and the Liberals, as they were then named. That was because they were not only more conscientious naturally but more accustomed to dealing with envelopes…

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It’s not the local elections that could mark the end for Blair

It’s not the local elections that could mark the end for Blair

If Tony Blair is to be forced from office by the result of an election then the one that takes place in the US on November 2 is likely to have a bigger impact than coming third behind the Lib Dems in this year’s local polls. Certainly Thursday’s drubbing will provide further fuel for those in the Labour party who want him out. And, of course, there have been the rumours for months that at the famous Admiralty Arch dinner…

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Our London Call – where it went wrong

Our London Call – where it went wrong

We originally made our call on the London Mayor when Ken Livingstone was 21% ahead in the polls and when there was no threat that the Tory vote would be split by the rise of UKIP. As it has turned out the margin on first preferences was 7.46%. We thought it was going to be much closer and that the prices offered good value but in the end Ken came through. Looking at it we can only conclude that it…

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Charles Kennedy must now be safe

Charles Kennedy must now be safe

The Lib Dems performance in the Labour heartlands and the spectacular victory in Newcastle make Charles Kennedy’s position as leader safe even if the Euro Elections go badly for the party. If they can take Birmingham as well, as some are predicting, then that would be the icing on the cake. They’ve needed to show that they can take Labour votes and they’ve done that in a major way. The main betting market for this is the Party Leaders at…

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Has Ken bucked the anti-Labour trend?

Has Ken bucked the anti-Labour trend?

If it was not for the YouGov poll on SkyNews taken during the day on Thursday we would be confidently predicting a victory for Steve Norris in the London Mayoral Election – the result of which will be announced later in the day. The BBC prediction based on the local elections results thoughout England has the following vote split:- CON 38% LAB 26% LIBd 30% This is the first time that a governing party at Westminster has been forced into…

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History points to a Tory Mayoral Victory

History points to a Tory Mayoral Victory

The London Mayoral race has the feel of the 1992 General Election about it. Then Kinnock was in the lead right until one final poll (top right on picture) which showed Labour and the Tories level pegging. John Major went on to win by 8%. For in the past whenever the Tories have been seen to recover sharply in an eve of election survey they have gone on to win by a mile. Apart from 1992 this happened at the…

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The real bet in the London Mayor election – do you trust internet polls?

The real bet in the London Mayor election – do you trust internet polls?

What punters are being asked to do with the London Mayor market is bet on which polling methodology they most trust. Is it the tried and tested conventional survey conducted by telephone interviewers or is it the new kid on the block, YouGov, which does it all on the internet and is led by the former political journalist, Peter Kellner (above). The form-book is with YouGov – they got the 2001 General Election right; they got the 2002 London Borough…

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