Monday Call – June 28 2004

Monday Call – June 28 2004

Big New General Election Profit Opportunities The biggest betting opportunity this week comes from the online bookmaker Bet365 which has opened three new General Election markets at prices that are out of alignment with what is available elsewhere and, indeed, what it is itself offering in other markets. Just compare their prices with the current Commons seats spread betting prices – which we believe represent a fair current reflection of what is likely to happen – Tony Blair to be…

Read More Read More

The Leicester South by-election – a market to look forward to

The Leicester South by-election – a market to look forward to

Can Labour hold on? Can the Tories show that they are on the way back? Can the Lib Dems jump from third to first? When will the betting markets open? This weekend huge numbers of Tory, Lib Dem and Labour party activists from all over the country will be heading for Leicester South where the parliamentary by-election has been set for July 15. Michael Howard has already become a frequent visitor. This will be a tough three-way fight and the…

Read More Read More

Bookmaker beats exchanges on Blair too

Bookmaker beats exchanges on Blair too

Blair staying at 1.53 looks good value After yesterday’s move by William Hill to offer the best price on Labour for the General Election the bookmaker is beating the betting exchanges in another key General Election market – whether Tony Blair will be Labour leader on election day.? The mood has moved back to Blair in recent weeks and this has been reinforced by comments from Gordon Brown that the Prime Minister would stay until the Euro referendum at the…

Read More Read More

Labour eases to 1.4 – is now the time to bet?

Labour eases to 1.4 – is now the time to bet?

….but Labour spread range hardens Moves against Labour on the General Election markets have seen the price go to 1.4 with William Hill, which has almost certainly got the biggest book and reflects money going on the Tories. This is the best value on Labour for a very long time and now might be the time to bet. To underline the value of this price punters should note that of the £306,000 that’s been matched on Labour in the Betfair…

Read More Read More

Where’ve the opinion poll protestors been since 1992?

Where’ve the opinion poll protestors been since 1992?

Neil Kinnock: Sheffield Rally: 1992 General Election Labour bias +6.5% IGNORE; UKIP bias +4.9% PROTEST For nearly a decade and a half the opinion polls have had, when tested against real General Election results, an average pro-Labour bias of 6.5% and there’s been hardly a whisper from Labour MPs. The bias led to political gamblers making huge errors and losses at the 1992 General Election in which Neil Kinnock, above, made what amounted to a pre-election victory speech a few…

Read More Read More

Sticking with our John Kerry Call

Sticking with our John Kerry Call

It’s down to Bush’s lack of popularity Four years ago we backed George W. Bush at substantially better than evens to win the 2000 White House race because we felt that he had more voter appeal to many Americans than Al Gore. As it turned out we should have lost that bet but we didn’t. Now comes the opportunity to bet on him again but we are not sticking with Bush for the same reason – we do not think…

Read More Read More

Monday Call – June 21 2004

Monday Call – June 21 2004

“LAB 359: CON 198” – Is it really so bad for Michael Howard? Our longstanding call on Labour to win most seats at the General Election and the huge mountain that Michael Howard has to climb are, on the face of it, reinforced by this latest General Election prediction by City financial mathematician, Martin Baxter. LAB 33.22% (-8.87%): CON 32.46% (-0.24%): LIBD 20.77% (+1.93%) This gives the following Commons seats- LAB 359 (-44): CON 198 (+33): LIBD 58 (+7) Overall…

Read More Read More

Polls show big opposition to Euro Constitution Referendum

Polls show big opposition to Euro Constitution Referendum

Post Updated Sunday – 0530 But be careful about rushing in to bet Unsurprisingly two opinion polls this morning show that a big majority of UK voters would vote NO in the planned referendum on the EU Constitution that was agreed in Brussels on Friday. YouGov for the Sunday Times has 23% in favour to 49% against. An ICM poll, commissioned by the non-party NO campaign, has 28% in favour to 57% against. But political gamblers should be very wary…

Read More Read More