Monday Call – June 28 2004

Monday Call – June 28 2004

Big New General Election Profit Opportunities
The biggest betting opportunity this week comes from the online bookmaker Bet365 which has opened three new General Election markets at prices that are out of alignment with what is available elsewhere and, indeed, what it is itself offering in other markets. Just compare their prices with the current Commons seats spread betting prices – which we believe represent a fair current reflection of what is likely to happen – Tony Blair to be returned but with a much smaller majority.

LAB 330-340: CON 236-247: LIBD 55-60

The best value from Bet365 is Conservatives to win 245 seats & over – 3.5. To underline how far out this is the bookmaker is offering exactly the same price on the Conservatives winning most seats at the General Election – and for that they will need about 290 seats or more. The 245 figure is also below the top of the spread betting range. At this price a winning £100 bet would produce £350 including the stake. BET NOW before this is taken off the market.

The price of 2.6 on the Lib Dems getting 61 seats or more is a far better bet than buying at 60 in the spread market because it does not have the huge down-side risks. A final market on Labour’s overall majority also offers great value. The prices are;

Labour majority less than 51.5 seats – 2.25
Labour majority of more than 51.5 seats – 1.57

To achieve a majority of 51.5 Labour needs to win 350 seats which, based on current evidence, looks very challenging. The top of the spread market, 340 seats, is equivalent to a Labour majority of 32.

On the main market – the 1.4 from William Hill, which we recomended on Thursday, on Labour winning most seats has now been cut to 1.36 but is still the price leader.

Today’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph shows that the Tories are still suffering from the UKIP surge at the Euro Election. The party split is:

CON 34: LAB 33: LIB 21

Party Leaders
A good feature by Andrew Rawnsley in the Observer asking the question – “Has Gordon Brown blown his chance?” should be looked at by all who have an interest in the Labour Leadership and Still Party Leaders markets. It’s very hard now to bet against Tony Blair and William Hill’s 1.53 on him being there on election day looks good. As of the time of posting the Betfair price on Blair has just nudged ahead – but remember that you have to pay upto 5% commission on your winnings.

No bookmakers are yet offering markets on Leicester South and Birmingam Hodge Hill. At the last general election in Leicester South, Labour came first with 22,958 votes, Tories second with 9,715 and the Lib Dems third with 7,243. In Birmingham Hodge Hill in 2001 Labour won with 16,901 votes, the Tories again came second with 5,283 and the Lib Dems third with 2,147.
The Leicester seat looks the toughest for Labour and the most interesting. When markets open you might want to test the prices against our assessment of the party chances:-

LAB 30%: CON 25%: LIBD 45%

White House Race 2004
The biggest weakness in our CALL on JOHN KERRY has been money. In a national campaign where TV advertising plays a huge part we were worried that George W. Bush has so much at his disposal that the Kerry campaign was going to be obliterated. This has been eased by an examination of the campaign financing by the New York Times that suggests that although Kerry still has less money than Bush he is attracting the tens of millions of dollars that are going to be needed to keep his message in front of the US electorate in the countdown to November 2. This is good on two counts: it shows the depth of support Kerry has and it means he has the resources to sustain the campaign.

The polls are showing a mixed picture of Kerry’s position in relation to Bush. But the President’s approval ratings continue at below 50% – and this, we believe, is the significant indicator. Prices in the UK remain attractive with 2.1-2.25 on Kerry being possible.

NOTE: When we make a call we are stating that we believe that the chances of something happening are better than the odds that are available. All prices quoted are as at time of posting. We endeavour to ensure that material is accurate when posted. However can accept no respnsiblity for the information on the site or opinions expressed. Users make bets entirely at their own risk.


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