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When it became apparent that Donald Trump was going to be indicted I predicted that this would simultaneously solidify Trump’s hold on the GOP nomination whilst weaken Trump’s chances of winning the Presidency next year. The first part of that prediction is coming true based on this YouGov poll. I had a hunch that GOP voters would see this as the greatest sham trial since Jesus was taken before Sanhedrin then Pontius Pilate which would boost Trump. I suspect the…

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If he remains healthy the 80-year-old will get it I have generally been very skeptical of Biden’s chances of being the WH2024 nominee once again but he clearly wants it and the big question is whether his health will hold. Whatever this will be the big media focus and any hint of him not being up to it healthwise will come under a lot of media scrutiny. The polling finds most Democrat voters looking at him favourably but not wanting…

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This is from the New York Times: After a brief hiatus, The Trump Show is back. Americans, ready or not, are now along for another roller-coaster ride with a protagonist whose pre-eminence in the media universe had begun to fade.”..Banned from Twitter, Mr. Trump’s outbursts and grievances had stopped shaping the news cycle. Out of office, he became inherently less newsworthy. He even vanished from Fox News, his usual television home, for about four months beginning in November.”. Now Mr….

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The above podcast came out yesterday and the polling in it looks interesting and should be of some concern to Labour particularly the comments in relation to Starmer. Already the blue attack machine is trying to get its teeth into him. Remember that the way the Tories win general elections is by attacking and undermining the LAB leader. Just ask EdM. Last time this was easier because of Corbyn. One thing that should be noted is that Labour needs to…

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Over the past few weeks we have seen extraordinary TV pictures from France of the demonstrations that are taking place against the decision by the Macron government to try to increase the pensionable age up from 64. The anger is enormous as well as the scale of the protests which are far bigger than what we have seen in the UK. I find it quite remarkable that the French are trying to preserve a punctual age of 64 while in…

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It is looking very likely that there will be a by-election in the Scottish seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton constituency following investigations into a series of lockdown violations by the sitting MP. She is still there but her political future does not look good because the committee which has looked at the matter is calling for a four weeks suspension which would trigger a by-election. The seat has a checkered history of flipping between Labour and the SNP and it…

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My best guess is late autumn next year One of the things about British politics at the moment is that there is little speculation about when Sunak will decide to go to the country. Normally in the fourth year after an election, you would expect that to be happening. The Tory majority is large enough for Sunak not to be concerned and he will go when the time is right for his party and his chances. He’ll also want to…

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Earlier in the month it will be recalled Keir Starmer ruled that Corbyn should not be a LAB candidate at the next general election. This has led to much speculation that he might seek to re-enter parliament by fighting without his party’s backing. That would mean he would have to leave the party as would those who members who supported his campaign. It is just possible that we could end with a situation where Corbyn is standing against the official…

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