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Monday Call – August 9 2004 [next planned update Wednesday]

9/8/2004 Editor

How the pundits will get the next General Election wrong We believe that the result of the next General Election will be seen as one of the great upsets of modern times to rank alongside 1970, February 1974 and 1992 when Edward Heath, Harold Wilson and John Major respectively defied the pundits, and to a large extent the opinion polls, to gain unexpected victories. A Guardian feature by two Labour thinkers today notes “..Given the volatility of contemporary politics, it…

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The White House Race – Now it gets tough [Next planned update – Monday]

6/8/2004 Editor

Punters should hold their nerve on John Kerry After the euphoria of the Boston Convention John Kerry has been moving in and out of favourite position in the UK as the polls have reported differing messages on the impact of his formal nomination last week. We stick by our CALL on Kerry, first made nearly three months ago and repeated nearly twenty times since but we think that it’s going to be a tough August for the Democrat contender. Betting…

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Labour’s in trouble as well [Next planned update – Friday]

4/8/2004 Editor

Blair needs a clear poll lead to avoid a hung Parliament The fact that only the Guardian seems to be reporting that all is not well with Labour does not mean that it’s not in electoral trouble. Support down by a quarter since the General Election; membership at a 70 year low having lost almost half of those that were there when Tony Blair came to power in 1997; a collapse in the popularity of the Prime Minister, and an…

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Monday Call – August 2 2004 [Next planned update – Wednesday]

2/8/2004 Editor

Are the Tories right to cry “foul” over the “biased” electoral system? The Tories are said to be drawing up plans to attack the “inbuilt advantage” in the electoral system that in recent elections has given Labour far more seats in proportion to votes cast than the other parties. In 2001 the Tories needed to get almost twice as many votes for each seat while the Lib Dems required three and a half times more. Partly this was due to…

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Could the university seats be Blair’s undoing?

31/7/2004 Editor

Newcastle LibDem leaflet Does retaining the university seats hold the key to Tony Blair’s premiership? Applying the Martin Baxter caculator to the latest poll figures gives Labour 346 seats – 22 more than is required for a majority and the bottom of the current spread markets on the party. But how safe are the 22? Could disproportionate swings or highly focused targeting take away this number or even more seats leaving Tony Blair without a majority. Could those targets include…

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Poll boosts for Lib Dems & Labour in UK and Kerry in US

30/7/2004 Editor

UPDATE 2pm US ELECTIONS LATEST – Kerry/Edwards open up five point lead A poll just published and surveyed during the Boston Convention shows that the Democratic ticket has opened up a 5% lead over Bush/Cheney. The figures from Zogby international are 48-43. Amongst men the gap is just one percent – amongst women it is 9%. Prices have stayed stable with most UK bookmakers staying on 5/6 on both. The Iowa Electronic Exchange – where “political futures” are traded like…

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The Political Betting People Markets

29/7/2004 Editor

Will Tony, Peter and Michael hang on to their jobs? While the focus has been on by-elections and their implications for the General Election there continues to be lots of activity on the people markets – particularly on those involving Tony Blair. Given the confident way he dealt with the Butler report and the by-election aftermath we think that the odds on Blair to be Prime Minister Before End of Next General Election at 8/15 are pretty generous. We can’t…

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Will Labour recover?

28/7/2004 Editor

Or is the “Love Affair” over? With the latest spread prices showing, not surprisingly, a further move to the Lib Dems at the expense of the Conservatives the big question for those trying to “call” the next General Election is whether and how much Labour can recover from poll ratings that the party has not seen in a generation. Is this just the normal dip of a party in power, as argued here by the head of Populus, Andrew Cooper,…

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