Or is the “Love Affair” over?
With the latest spread prices showing, not surprisingly, a further move to the Lib Dems at the expense of the Conservatives the big question for those trying to “call” the next General Election is whether and how much Labour can recover from poll ratings that the party has not seen in a generation.
Is this just the normal dip of a party in power, as argued here by the head of Populus, Andrew Cooper, or have large parts of the electorate simply “fallen out of love with New Labour” as described by the veteran columnist, Alan Watkins in the Independent last Sunday. The latest spreads are:-
LAB 346-354 (NC): CON 210-218 (-2): LIBD 64-68 (+2)
Yet again the spread price is based on the 659 seat House of Commons not the 646 one that will be fought over to deal with the Scottish anamoly of having too many seats in proportion to its population. There are many issues involved:-
Given the UK’s electoral geography being so much in Labour’s favour it’s a brave punter who bets against the party getting most seats at the General Election. We’d like more interesting bets to be made available – such as will Michael Howard hold off the Lib Dem challenge in is his seat at Folkestone!