The Tory decade of flat-lining

The Tory decade of flat-lining

APOLOGIES FOR EARLIER TECHNICAL PROBLEMS The great consolation for Labour with its current problems is that the Tories remain completely stuck. The following show the average annual opinion poll ratings from ICM for the Conservatives over the past ten years and although there has been a small improvement the figures remain pretty consistent. 1995 29% 1996 30.4% 1997 29.2% (General Election 31.4%) 1998 29.6% 1999 30% 2000 32.5% (excluding petrol crisis surveys) 2001 31.25% (General Election 32.7%) 2002 31.2% 2003…

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Our competition makes the news

Our competition makes the news

The Atticus column is the Sunday Times today covers our General Election competition. It notes: Gamblers are predicting a Labour majority of 63 at the next election. Voters’ views have been collected by PoliticalBetting.Com, a political website, whose founder Mike Smithson says: “The top prediction so far is 130. The worst predicted result for Labour is being 22 MPs short of an overall majority.” There’s bad news, too, for Tory Theresa May: most gamblers say she’ll lose her Maidenhead seat….

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Labour down 2 points with ICM

Labour down 2 points with ICM

Is the Brown/Blair split costing votes? Labour has slipped 2% in the first poll of 2005 which also shows that more people want Gordon Brown to be Prime Minister than Tony Blair. This brings ICM back into the line with the other pollsters who have all shown Labour slipping back a little since November. By way of comparison the average Labour share with ICM in 2000, the year before the last General Election, was 48%. Tomorrow’s poll shows that the…

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Labour price up – Tory price down

Labour price up – Tory price down

The polls look as though they will stay gloomy for the Tories Just eleven days before Christmas we said that those wanting to back Labour should do it then and those wanting to risk money on the Tories should wait. That’s proved to be good advice and since then the markets have moved in the way we thought they would. The Spreadfair Labour buy price is now 355 seats and the Tory spreads are 193-197 seats. The big drivers of…

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Competition entrants predict Labour majority of 63

Competition entrants predict Labour majority of 63

But will Theresa May hold on in Maidenhead? With just two days left for people to get their entries in for our General Election Competition Politicalbetting users are predicting a Labour vote margin of 3.4%, an overall majority of 63 and that it’s touch and go whether the former Conservative chairman, Theresa May, will hang on to her Maidenhead seat. Inputting the average vote margin into Martin Baxter’s calculator you need to factor in a tactical vote unwind of -2.5%…

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Blair to quit odds shorten

Blair to quit odds shorten

What’s behind the “step down” rumours? William Hill have cut their odds about Tony Blair resigning as Labour leader during 2005 from 5/2 to 2/1 – and lengthened their odds about him surviving as Prime Minister for longer than Margaret Thatcher from 4/1 to 9/2. According to the bookmaker: “the political rumour mill seems to be full of stories suggesting that Mr Blair will be going sooner rather than later, so we are adjusting our odds accordingly’. The Blair to…

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What’s the electoral price for Brown’s dissent?

What’s the electoral price for Brown’s dissent?

Labour sell price down three A sign of the complete confidence that Gordon Brown has in a Labour victory at the election is the report this morning that he is considering going “it alone in the run-up to the general election after being “excluded” from campaign preparations by Downing Street. The report in the Independent observes: In a sign of serious tensions between the Prime Minister and the Chancellor, Mr Brown signalled that he would be forming his own ideas…

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Is Gordon really a 1/4 certainty?

Is Gordon really a 1/4 certainty?

But if not the Chancellor – who? The current best price on Gordon Brown to be next leader of the Labour Party is 1/4. That means that if you bet £100 your winnings would be £25 and given Tony Blair’s statement about his plans then you could be waiting for, maybe, four years to collect. If so your winnings would barely cover the interest on putting the money in the building society. But have the recent promotions of Charles Clarke…

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