…or will the price slip further Following the decline of the Tories in the spread betting markets and the new version of the Martin Baxter seat calculator with a tactical unwind element a number of people have asked whether we consider that the party is now a good buy. We think that the current spread level is based on the depressed opinion poll ratings for the party and the ongoing poor publicity that Michael Howard is getting. We do not…
! Which MPs should be thinking about their future careers? If you are returning to your computer today after the holiday don’t forget to enter our General Election Competition – entries close on Saturday. Already a big range of predictions has emerged and there has been particular interest in several of the seat-specific elements. Bethnal Green and Bow has produced a range of predictions covering four possible outcomes. Will George Galloway do it? If he doesn’t will his campaign undermine…
Will Martin’s new calculator change the way we look at the election? The former Cambridge and now city mathematician, Martin Baxter, has produced a new version of his famous Commons seat calculator to build in an element of tactical vote unwind. This is the effect that a number of experts think might happen as a result of Lib Dem supporters returning to their normal allegiance after switching to Labour in 1997 and 2001 to get the Tories out. If this…
The Tory rollercoaster continues to fall With the Tory buy price on the spread markets down to 197 seats – just 32 more than the 2001 General Election total – the question of whether there will be another Tory calamity depends on the outcome of a battle in which the party will hardly be involved and over which, like William Hague’s rollercoaster in the picture, it has little control For the real issue that will determine whether it is Blair…
What happens when the money runs out Apart from George Bush no American has had a greater impact on UK politics in the past year than Dick Morris. He was the election strategist who masterminded victory for President Bill Clinton, and was hired to be the brains behind the United Kingdom Independence party’s campaign at the Euro Elections last June. His involvement was first noticed by the then Observer columnist, Nick Cohen, who more than two months beforehand wrote this…
UKIP will get less than 2% of the national vote The UKIP threat to Michael Howard’s party at the General Election could be blunted by the rules which determine how the broadcasting organisations are allowed to cover the campaign once it has been declared. For although these have yet to be finalised they will almost certainly follow previous practice and allocate the lion’s share of election broadcasts to those defined as “major parties” – Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats and, in…
Something more to argue about New Year’s Eve and a good moment to launch our General Election Prediction Competition. Apart from the honour and the recognition from your peers we are hoping that a sponsor will provide a suitable prize. At the moment the best we have got is a colour picture of Ken Livingstone with his autograph on it and a Tony Blair mug where the nose grows as you pour in hot water. Post your entries as a…
I am compiling a General Election Prediction competition which as well as the general forecasts has six or seven seat specific elements. At the moment I’ve got Bethnal Green & Bow (George Galloway); Cambridge (the most discussed seat on the site) ; Dorset West (Oliver Letwin’s and a LD decapitation target) ; Brent East (by-election follow-up) and St. Albans (possible tactical vote unwind) . I’d like interesting Scottish and Welsh seats as well as any other suggestions for seats that…