Is 5/1 against it NOT being May 5th now a good bet? The current price on the Betfair “Will it be May 5th” market is 5/1 against that not being the day. Could the Royal Wedding impact on the time-table and force Tony Blair to move the election back or bring it forward? I am grateful to Anthony Wells for advising that the election timetable is fixed in stone. The polling day is automatically exactly 17 days after the dissolution…
Can we discuss the idea here Our interesting thread on serious issues relating to opinion polling has got somewhat hi-jacked by a discussion on a possible Politicalbetting party. The idea is to create a get-together where we could meet one another and put faces to names. What do site users think of the idea? When should it be – post or pre General Election? Where should it be? One idea was at the House of Commons where we would need…
Will the General Election end the YouGov controversy? With the Tories claiming that the pollsters have a systemic bias to Labour there’s going to be much more focus on the battle that has been dividing the polling world – the one between the internet pollster, YouGov and the firms that carry out conventional surveys. A flavour of the ferocity of the argument can be seen in the comments from Andrew Copper, boss of Populus, in these exchanges here from UK…
Politicalbetting user Daniel Hamilton has set up a new site providing a discussion forum platform on every single one of the 646 seats that will be contested at the General Election. Lots of familiar names from our discussion forums are contributing to the site which looks like it will be an excellent resource for the coming campaign. We had been planning something like this ourselves but our main conern in recent weeks has been to ensure that Politicalbetting’s infrastructure is…
bbc Can Lynton Crosby really grapple with the Labour spin machine? After more than a decade of almost total dominance of the media could the New Labour machine, now joined again by Alistair Campbell, be finally meeting its match. Is the Tory party getting its PR and campaigning act together? In the past week or so we’ve seen moves by Michael Howard’s party that would have been unheard at previous elections. There’s the concerted attack on Campbell’s return to centre…
Could it be the way they ask the questions? With the current claims by the Tories that the polls have a systemic bias in favour of Labour eveybody seems to ignore the fact that each firm puts the voting intention question in a unique way. There are subtle differences that could have an impact on their figures. MORI which has been in this game for longest, put it very simply: “How would you vote if there were a General Election…
bbc Take the interviewer away and Blair’s party drops 7% Starkingly contrasting figures to the telephone-based Populus Poll have just been published on the YouGov website. They are from the Mail on Sunday survey on immigration which also collected party share information which is what is now available. The figures are with comparisons to today’s Populus poll: CON 33 (+1), LAB 34 (-7), LD 23 (+5). It is important to note that the field-work took place a day ahead of…
Is it just the Lib Dems being out of the lime-light? This morning’s poll in the Times by Populus has had little effect on the spread-betting markets – even though it shows Labour at 41% – the party’s highest rating with the firm since the Iraq war. The figures, discussed in the previous article – LAB 41 (+3): CON 32 (-1): LD 18 (-2). – were revealed on Channel 4 early yesterday evening and there was plenty of time for…