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As predicted by Politicalbetting on October 20th 2004 Michael Howard is going into the final phase of the campaign urging electors to “send a message” to Tony Blair. In interviews and public comments over the past couple of days the Tory leader is making the “send a message” theme the hallmark of his final phase rhetoric. Although he is not actually conceding defeat the aim seems to be to get over without saying as much that Tony Blair will win…

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Bookies prepare for £50 million election betting rush With polling just ten days away the betting industry is preparing for a record level of betting on the General Election. There are well over 200 separate things that you can bet on ranging from a huge array of spread markets to the betting exchanges and, of course, the traditional bookmakers. Our list of the marginal seats where online betting is available grows by the day and, in many cases, there are…

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Gamblers put Blair’s majority up a further 4 seats UK vote shares: LAB 37.4 (nc): CON 33.65 (+0.25) : LD 21.5 (nc ) Election Outcome LAB majority 80 seats (+4) The sentiment continues to move towards Labour and today’s balance of money prediction shows that spread gamblers are putting their money behind Tony Blair being returned with a majority of 80 – the highest point of the campaign. Although this would be about half the current the current level and…

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Which pollster will overstate Labour the least? There’s another battle taking place on May 5th where passions are almost intense as the General Election itself as this piece from Bob Worcester (left) boss of Mori, shows. Which of the pollsters will get closest to the actual result and will the traditional telephone interview-based surveys see off the threat from Peter Kellner’s, YouGov – the internet firm that is just completing its floatation today. For it is only when you can…

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Gamblers put Labour 4% ahead UK vote shares: LAB 37.4 (+0.5 ): CON 33.4 (-0.4) : LD 21.5 (nc ) Election Outcome LAB majority 76 seats (nc) Labour’s margin in our BALANCE OF MONEY prediction has risen to 4% – the biggest gap since we started doing the calculation in the first week of the campaign. This is an all-UK figure and is lower than the GB-only figures produced by the opinion polls. The last week has seen a big…

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Can Rik Willis better the Tory 2001 performance in Sutton & Cheam? We are finalising details of our second General Election competition and as well as the main predictions we are planning to have a section on the fortunes of some of the candidates who are regular contributors to the site. Richard Willis will be amongst them as well as Nick Palmer in Broxtowe. How many percentage points will they be up or down on their party’s performance at the…

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Iraq: The Attorney-General’s advice to Blair leaked – Mail on Sunday Three exclusives in the Mail on Sunday, the Telegraph and the Times this morning might change the agenda as we move into the final full week of the campaign. Probably the most serious is the reported leaking to the Mail on Sunday of the Attorney-General’s advice on the legality of the Iraq War and could provide the opening for the Lib Dems and the Tories to, once again, raise…

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Should Kennedy be gloomy or happy – who knows? The first of the polls for the Sunday papers are now out and the big variation is over the Lib Dems. One has them down at 18% while another has them 23% – a variation of more than a quarter. The pollsters cannot all be right and this could have a big impact on the final result. The Sunday polls with comparisons on the last similar survey from the same pollster…

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