How the pollsters dealt with their final polls

How the pollsters dealt with their final polls

ICM’s raw data had Labour nearly 20% ahead An extraordinary insight into the challenge that pollsters have in finding representative samples is revealed in the detailed data for the final surveys which is just being made available. We all know now that in terms of the popular vote in Great Britain Labour beat the Conservatives by 36.2% to 33.2% – or about eleven Labour voters for each ten Conservative ones. But base data for the final surveys ICM and Populus…

Read More Read More

Will the next Prime Minster break the A1 rule?

Will the next Prime Minster break the A1 rule?

One of the quirks of modern British politics is that for the last twenty-six years whoever has been the Prime Minister has sat at Westminster for a seat on the A1 trunk road. Margaret Thatcher’s Finchley rests at the southern end of the main route to Edinburgh; John Major’s Huntingdon is on the A1 as it goes through Cambridgeshire and Tony Blair’s Sedgefield covers both sides of the highway in County Durham. So is this “rule” which has lasted a…

Read More Read More

Will Tories back the Hague rollercoaster?

Will Tories back the Hague rollercoaster?

Could the Tories really go back to the last leader but two? The big money in the Tory leadership contest has been piling on the last leader to be beaten by Tony Blair, William Hague. At one stage William Hill’s reported that it had taken £85,000 worth of bets on the former leader in just an hour and all the bookmakers have tightened their prices. The best you can get from a conventional bookmaker is 7/2. Hague, who is now…

Read More Read More

Will Vote-2009 be on the same day as the Euro Elections?

Will Vote-2009 be on the same day as the Euro Elections?

Book it in your diary – the next General Election will be on June 11 2009 If the next General Election is held in four years time then it will be the first time that the vote to determine the next House of Commons will coincide with the cycle of five-yearly Euro elections. If Prime Minister Brown/Straw/Hain/Clark/follows the pattern of his/her predecessor then the next General Election looks like being held on June 11 2009 – the Euro date that…

Read More Read More

Who’ll go first – Blair or Howard?

Who’ll go first – Blair or Howard?

Who will “win” this final contest? With leadership issues dominating both main parties in this post-election period Hills have opened a new market on which of Michael Howard or Tony Blair will stand down first. The current prices are 1/7 on Howard going before Blair and 4/1 against Blair going before Howard. With the pressure continuing to build on Mister Blair, as everybody now seems to be calling him, the 4/1 looks good value. In the Labour leadership stakes, meanwhile,…

Read More Read More

Was turnout distorted by postals and the register tidy-up

Was turnout distorted by postals and the register tidy-up

Our 11/4 tip was right but were our reasons wrong? What turned out to be one of our most profitable tips at the election was to go for turnout at 60% or more when the price was 11/4. We argued in February that the Iraq war had politicised more groups and the fact that it would appear to be a much tighter race would drive more people to the polls than the 59% of four years ago. Although the 61%…

Read More Read More

Did the pollsters do OK?

Did the pollsters do OK?

Why did the polls converge? In the big debate over internet and telephone polling many were hoping the May 5 would resolve the issue once and for all. And in the days leading upto to polling day it did look as though the two competing methodologies were presenting a very different picture of the actual vote with, at one stage, one telephone pollster reporting a 14% Labour lead. But lo and behold along comes May 5 and the forecasts all…

Read More Read More

The Politicalbetting Forecasters of 2005

The Politicalbetting Forecasters of 2005

How did our contestants do? Several hundred site users took part in our two competitions for the honours of being the site’s top forecasters of the 2005 General Election. Surprisingly entrants in the New Year prediction contest proved to be better at getting nearest to the eventual result than those who took part in our final week competition last Monday. New Year contestants’averages: Labour majority 63, Labour GB vote lead 3.4% Final week contestants’ averages: Labour majority 75: Labour GB…

Read More Read More