The French Referendum: the money goes on NON

The French Referendum: the money goes on NON

Could there be a late swing back to OUI? The latest polls showing gathering support for the NON position in the weekend referendum in France on the EU Constitution has seen sharp changes in the betting where the NON outcome is now the firm favourite. The best bookmaker price is 8/11 with the Betfair market showing 0.75/1. The Spreadfair spread betting exchange on the percentage the NON side will get is showing 51-51.5% – so there’s probably better value there…

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Did the “Labour dirty tricks” film tell us anything new?

Did the “Labour dirty tricks” film tell us anything new?

Was the billing bigger than the content? Over the past few days there’s been a lot of hype about tonight’s Dispatches documentary on Channel 4 in which a young worker, Jenny Kleeman (above) was “planted” in Labour’s London press office to find out how Tony Blair’s party fought the election. The Sunday Times reported yesterday that Labour party was ” braced for criticism” over the programme’s allegations of dirty tricks. The Telegraph focussed on the allegation that “Labour used its…

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Did Labour lose half a million votes in the final 48 hours?

Did Labour lose half a million votes in the final 48 hours?

Should Tony Blair have had a positive message to close on? The closing two days of the campaign were dominated by Labour’s no holds barred warning of the dangers of what could happen if one in ten party supporters did not vote or supported another party. Such was the importance of getting this message across that it devoted its entire final election broadcast on the Tuesday to the subject. The emphasis was almost 100% on the negative. Yet looking back…

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What’s best for Brown and Clarke – a OUI or a NON?

What’s best for Brown and Clarke – a OUI or a NON?

How will next weekend’s vote impact on UK politics? With just a week to go before the French EU constitution referendum betting price on a “Non” have continued to tighten and now a full range of bookmakers are offering markets. The OUI position is still ahead but the best price on a NON is now 5/4. But the result, whichever way it goes, could have an enormous impact UK domestic politics and particularly on the when will Blair go question,…

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Could the economy dish Gordon Brown’s leadership chances?

Could the economy dish Gordon Brown’s leadership chances?

But if not the Chancellor who? With Gordon Brown continuing to be the heavy odds-on favourite in the Next Labour leader market anything that might hurt his chances has to be taken seriously. And today, in one of those front page splashes that have becoming a characteristic of the Independent in its tabloid form, the paper pulls together a series of economic indicators to question whether the UK might be in trouble. Philip Thornton, Economics Editor, notes ……mounting concern that…

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Did postal voting lead to a lower overall turnout?

Did postal voting lead to a lower overall turnout?

Why did so many on the postal list not vote? The move to extend postal voting was said to have been Labour’s “big idea” to deal with ongoing challenge that many more people say they support the party than actually vote for it. There is little hard evidence available but looking at what information we have from May 5th and hearing anecdotal reports the question has to be asked as to whether the five-fold increase in applications for postal votes…

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Could the Tony Blair show go on and on and…..?

Could the Tony Blair show go on and on and…..?

The markets think he’s going in 18 months – don’t believe it Judging by prices in the When will Blair go market the expectation is that Tony Blair will be handing over to Gordon Brown or AN Other within the next eighteen months. It’s just 2/1 against him making the change this year and 5/4 against him stepping down in 2006. You can get a massive 20/1 against Tony Blair still being Prime Minister on January 1st 2010. It’s the…

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YouGov stakes its claim to supremacy

YouGov stakes its claim to supremacy

Will the internet polling argument ever be resolved? In a move not designed to win him any friends within the UK polling industry the boss of YouGov, Peter Kellner, has posted a strongly argued piece, under the provocative heading “YouGov – consistently right” to reinforce his claim that his firm’s approach to taking the nation’s political temperature is the right one. Although he acknowledges that all the polls were within the same area in their eve of poll prediction and…

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