Is there money to be made on the gap narrowing? Two of the three final polls on the French EU Constitution referendum have shown a slight move back to the YES camp although NO is still firmly ahead. These are the surveys: TNS-Sofres: Oui 49%, Non 51% CSA: Oui 48%, Non 52% Ifop: Oui 44%, Non 56% Although the overall message is that the treaty is going to be rejected there just might be value in a BUY YES bet…
Will Blair stay longer if France votes NO? With the people of France voting tomorrow in their crucial referendum on the EU Constitution a YouGov poll UK opinion in today’s Daily Telegraph has NO 46%: YES 21%: when asked whether they “approve†the new Constitution. When the pollster last asked the question in January opinion was split by 45-25% so the margin has increased by five points since then. There is a sharp difference between supporters of the different parties….
In March I took the opportunity of a job move from the University of Oxford to the University of York to take nearly three months off so I could work almost full time on Politicalbetting.com during the General Election. That period is now coming to an end as I start in my new role next week. This means that the site will revert to what it was before – something that I do in my spare time. I won’t normally…
Is this an election for punters to avoid? With the polls showing that 54-55% of French people say they will vote no in the EU constitutional referendum on Sunday the best price you can get on this outcome is 3/10 on. There are two main spread-betting markets operating :- IG Index have 47-49% on the proportion voting YES. Confusingly the Spreadfair market is on the proportion voting NO where the latest spread is 52-53.9% . Any deviation from what the…
Barack Obama – 3rd favourite for the Democratic nomination Over the past few months there has been growing speculation that Barack Obama, a Senator from Illinois, might be the Democrat contender for the White House. He came to prominence with a major speech at the party Convention in Boston last July and in recent weeks has become third favourite in the betting behind Hilary Clinton and John Edwards. The best price you can get is 8/1. But a better long-shot…
Is the Tory leader’s authority slipping away? Michael Howard’s pleasure at seeing his lifelong love, Liverpool, pull off that sensational victory in the European Cup last night could be tempered by the problems in his party that are the main lead in early editions of the Daily Telegraph. This is suggesting that moves might be afoot to force him out “within weeks†and to have his successor in place by the end of July. The report quotes an interview with…
Will standing aside for Howard assure him the succession? Could the latest Conservative turmoil over the proposed changes in procedures for choosing the leader be just what David Davis needs to ensure that it is he who takes over from Michael Howard later in the year? For his supporters, no doubt, will remind colleagues how their man’s forbearance in October and November 2003 spared the party a divisive battle that could have left big scars in the run up to…
Evens on 30% or less looks great value With less than a month to go before the electors of South Staffordshire get their chance to vote in the 2005 General Election more betting markets have now opened on the poll, incorrectly being described as a by-election, that had to be moved back from May 5th because of the death of the Liberal Democrat candidate. Even in the 2001 landslide the veteran Tory MP, Patrick Cormack, retained the seat with more…