I cannot remember whether I had a bet on the 1970 General Election but if I did I certainly did not foresee the extraordinary victory of Edward Heath’s Conservative party. Everybody had written him off and Harold Wilson, it is said, had not even put in place the most rudimentary of removal plans in case he had to get out of Number 10. Whenever people talk about election certainties I always think of Heath’s achievement. His term in office was…
Could Blair stay to fight another election? As the polls were closing at the Hartlepool by-election on September 30th 2004 Tony Blair issued a statement that he was about to go into hospital for a small procedure and that he would stand down as Labour leader and Prime Minister before the then next General Election but one – which is probably scheduled for 2009. The move seemed designed to deal with ongoing unpopularity following the Iraq war and to end…
Is Liam Fox being lined up as the stop DD candidate? According to the Sunday Telegraph this morning the last three Tory leaders who failed to make it to Number 10 are considering giving their support to Liam Fox in what the paper says would be “a co-ordinated stop David Davis campaign”. Melissa Kite, the paper’s Deputy Political Editor, notes that William Hague “….. has expressed privately his admiration for Dr Fox but will demonstrate it publicly when the pair…
Winner of our Cheadle prediction competition There were no prizes for the winner of our by-election competition except something which is pricelsss – the recognition of fellow users of the site. This is Mark Senior our winner and these were his answers. 1 – Winning party – Lib Dems 10 points 2 – Percentage turnout – 60 % against actual of 55% giving 3 points 3 – Lib Dem Share – 52 % against actual of 52.15% giving the maximum…
Has the party moved on since Theresa May’s “nasty party” judgement? At the 2002 Tory party conference the then Chair, Theresa May, stunned delegates by telling them that..There’s a way to go before we can return to government. There’s a lot we need to do in this party of ours. Our base is too narrow and so, occasionally, are our sympathies, You know what some people call us: the nasty party” Nearly three years on from that speech the Cheadle…
Tory share rises but the Lib Dem margin gets bigger As we said the Cheadle by-election was always going be determined by what would happen to the Labour vote and the big squeeze yesterday that saw that drop by almost half on May 5th meant that the Lib Dems held it with ease. The skill of the Lib Dem campaign supremo, Chris Rennard, in demonising the Tories encouraged more tactical voting and meant that although the Tories advanced they are…
Can the Lib Dems make the leaflet “rapist” claim backfire? In the closing phase of election campaigns parties often implement strategies designed solely to get their activists motivated and their supporters out to vote. At the General Election Tony Blair created the “if one in 10 Labour supporters switches or stays at home then Michael Howard becomes PM” line to put fire into his troops and to scare wavering voters into going to the polls. The fact that the statement…
What result does Labour want? With only hours to go before the polling booths open our latest betting price chart on the Cheadle by-election markets shows that the implied probablilty of a Lib Dem win in the eyes of punters and bookmakers has continued to decline. From an 88% chance of success just ten days ago the figures has slumped to 66%. So Charles Kennedy’s party is still the odds on favourite but there’s nothing like the confidence of the…