Is Angela Merkel set to be the next German Chancellor?

Is Angela Merkel set to be the next German Chancellor?

Would a Schroeder defeat mean that it’s all change in Europe? If the polls and the betting markets have the German election right then Angela Merkel’s grouping of Christian Democrats and its Bavarian-based associate party Christian Social Union are on their way to a victory in the national ballot which is now set to take place on September 18th. The “starting gun” was fired on Thursday when the German President, Horst Koehler, announced that he had agreed to Chancellor Schroeder’s…

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Can Karl Rove survive the CIA leak scandal?

Can Karl Rove survive the CIA leak scandal?

It’s 6/1 against him having to go The Dublin-based international betting exchange, Tradesports, has opened a market on whether George Bush’s closest aide and architect of his election victories, Karl Rove, will announce his resignation on or before 30 September 2005. The current price is about 6/1. The heart of the issue is whether Rove told a journalist that the wife of a prominent critic of the White House’s Iraq polcy was a covert CIA agent and if he did…

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If it’s not Gordon Brown – then who is in contention?

If it’s not Gordon Brown – then who is in contention?

RED Alan Johnson: GREEN David Miliband: BLUE David Blunkett: BLACK Alan Milburn What if “events” blew the Chancellor’s career plan off course? While all the focus has been on the Tory leadership race it’s easy to forget that there’s almost certainly going to be a Labour leadership contest before the General Election. Gordon Brown, of course, is the red hot odds-on favourite but at 0.29/1 you would probably be better off leaving your stake in the building society than locking…

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How Davis’s challengers are shaping up

How Davis’s challengers are shaping up

Davis’s challengers – RED David Cameron: BLUE Ken Clarke: BLACK Liam Fox Clarke and Fox barely make an impact The moves to get the Liam Fox and Ken Clarke bandwagons moving in the Tory leadership contest have so far failed to impress the punters who are continuing to rate David Cameron as the man most likely to take on David Davis. Our latest chart shows the implied probablility of the three main challengers to Davis in the Tory leadership contenders…

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Would choosing Clarke be blowing smoke into the eyes of the membership?

Would choosing Clarke be blowing smoke into the eyes of the membership?

Can the veteran Europhile make it in a party of Europhobes? To many of his supporters Ken Clarke’s greatest strength is that like on the EU, or his link with a tobacco company the former Chancellor has never been prepared to tone down his positions in order win political popularity. What a contrast, they say, with Tony Blair and New Labour. On the face of it the moves to give a bigger role to Tory MPs in the leadership selection…

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Blair fourth term market goes online

Blair fourth term market goes online

It’s 16/1 against him winning a fourth term and staying as PM If you do not mind locking your money up for several years Ladbrokes have now begun taking online bets on whether Tony Blair will fight and win the next General Election and stay at Number 10. The price is an attractive 16/1 which we think is a fair reflection of the risk and the cost of the bookmaker and not you holding onto your stake until possibly May…

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The money’s going on David Davis not doing it

The money’s going on David Davis not doing it

Can he still get to the top? With Tory MPs due to vote on how the leadership contest should operate doubts have started to develop in the betting markets over whether the Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis, will do it. For the first time since the election “was declared” punters are moving against Davis and the most popular current bet is on him not doing it. The 2005 Tory leadership race is the first one to be held since the…

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In memory of Edward Heath – Prime Minister 1970-74

In memory of Edward Heath – Prime Minister 1970-74

I cannot remember whether I had a bet on the 1970 General Election but if I did I certainly did not foresee the extraordinary victory of Edward Heath’s Conservative party. Everybody had written him off and Harold Wilson, it is said, had not even put in place the most rudimentary of removal plans in case he had to get out of Number 10. Whenever people talk about election certainties I always think of Heath’s achievement. His term in office was…

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