The Leadership battle – the first six months

The Leadership battle – the first six months

Will the Sundays kill off the Cameron challenge? As our chart shows the first six months of the battle to replace Michael Howard as Tory leader has seen huge swings between the front-runners. What the graph illustrates is the implied probability of success based on the best betting prices available. Even though this is the final weekend of the first phase this contest is still very difficult to call and much could depend on what is in tomorrow’s papers. Will…

Read More Read More

William Hill reckon Fox will be first to drop out

William Hill reckon Fox will be first to drop out

Its Fox vs Clark In First Leadership Cull Bookmakers William Hill make Liam Fox their 5/6 odds-on favourite to be the first Tory leadership candidate to be balloted out of the running, closely followed by Ken Clarke who is priced at Even money. The other prices for the early departure are David Cameron 11/1 and David Davis 25/1 We think Hills have priced this wrong because the big move today on the betting exchanges has been an easing of the…

Read More Read More

Who’ll benefit from the drugs question?

Who’ll benefit from the drugs question?

Is the main impact just to raise Cameron’s profile? Following David Cameron’s appearance on Question Time last night and reports that the Mail Group is “seeking to dig up the dirt” on him the big question before the crucial first ballot is who all this is helping and who is being hurt? Watching the Shadow Education Secretary’s response on Question Time last night and the reaction of the audience I could not help but think that the main impact of…

Read More Read More

FOUR men: TWO to the final – TWO to be dropped

FOUR men: TWO to the final – TWO to be dropped

How the betting markets are rating the candidates Our latest chart showing the implied probability of victory based on the best betting prices shows the fortunes of the four still in the race over the past seven days. The big loser at the moment is the former Chancellor and contender in 1997 and 2001, Ken Clarke. He’s seen further slippage today and might not even make the second MPs ballot next Thursday. A further blow was the Cameron campaign announcing…

Read More Read More

September prediction competition finally resolved

September prediction competition finally resolved

Merkel’s election means we can now announce the results On the August Bank Holiday, we put up a prediction competition based on September’s political events around the world. We had a close result, and the top three contestants were: Haz S: 56 points Chris: 54 points Ben: 51 points The winner Haz S, also known as Harry Spencer, lives in North Norfolk and is a sixth-form student who aims to become a lawyer. Outside politics he enjoys tennis, music, computer…

Read More Read More

Cameron’s price tightens after surviving hustings test

Cameron’s price tightens after surviving hustings test

The Tory hopefuls face their first scrutiny by fellow MPs The first big test for the Tory hopefuls at Westminster – a hustings meeting organised by the right-wing 92 Group – has led to a tightening of the David Cameron price, and a slight easing of that available on Liam Fox following his move forward earlier after getting the backing of the “Cornerstones”. Each of the four candidates was “grilled” by an audience of about 50 MPs for about 25…

Read More Read More

Is there anything left in this race for Ken Clarke?

Is there anything left in this race for Ken Clarke?

…. We are not sure whether the person behind the Clarke tea-shirts is backing the ex-Chancellor or whether the plan is to block his leadership bid. Whatever Ken Clarke is having something of a roller coaster experience as he tries, at what surely must be his final attempt, to become leader of his party. For a long period his USP had been that the polls showed that he was the only contender with any chance of making significant progress at…

Read More Read More

Is there any betting value in the Tory race?

Is there any betting value in the Tory race?

David Cameron Best bookie price 8/11: Best betting exchange 1.02/1. Stormed up the betting last week from a 10/1 outsider to an odds-on favourite. In spite of several polls showing big lead amongst Tories he still has to get over the MPs’ ballot – the first round of which closes on Tuesday. Being just 39 and only having completed four full years in the Commons might make it hard to win over enough MPs. It is conceivable that he will…

Read More Read More