How much does Blunkett’s departure weaken Blair?

How much does Blunkett’s departure weaken Blair?

The story may not be over Before David Blunkett‘s resignation from the Cabinet yesterday, Liberal Democrat spokesman David Laws commented that Blunkett had “used up eight of his nine lives”. Number nine has gone now, in what must surely end any future hopes of high office. But what does it mean for the other great survivor of politics, Tony Blair? Reinstating Blunkett in the Cabinet immediately after the General Election in May showed great faith in his character. That’s now…

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David Blunkett has resigned

David Blunkett has resigned

It has just been announced that David Blunkett has resigned as Work and Pensions Secretary after a meeting with Tony Blair this morning. This is the second time in eleven months that he has had to step down. 11.50 am UPDATE It’s now 8/1 that he’ll be back in the Cabinet by December 2006 William Hill, who had been offering 7/4 against David Blunkett resigning, are now offering odds of 8/1 that he will be back in the Cabinet by…

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It’s 10/1 that Bush will not serve a full 2nd term

It’s 10/1 that Bush will not serve a full 2nd term

What do we think of this new betting market? If a British Prime Minister had gone though the problems that George Bush has had in recent weeks then all the speculation would be over whether he or she could survive. With the continuing toll in Iraq, the handling of the New Orleans disaster, the failure to get his Supreme Court nominee through and now the Libby indictment it is no wonder that Bush’s personal ratings have dropped to an all…

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Christmas must be coming – there’s a Blunkett resignation market

Christmas must be coming – there’s a Blunkett resignation market

Blunkett 7/4 to be out by New Year’s Day At last! William Hill have just opened a market on whether the Work & Pensions Secretary, David Blunkett, will survive in his post until the end of the year. The price is 7/4 that he’ll be out by then and 2/5 that he’ll survive. As yet it does not appear to be online but we’ll let you know as soon as it is. Sadly the price is nothing like as good…

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Why I’m betting against the opinion polls

Why I’m betting against the opinion polls

Take the 3/1 against Cameron getting below 66% At the May 5th General Election one of my biggest wins came from betting against the opinion polls. From my analysis I was convinced that they were overstating Labour and I backed my judgment with a four figure amount per unit spread bet. At a time when the likes of ICM, Populus and several others had the party in the 40s I bet that the equivalent of the GB share of the…

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Is time running out for Tony?

Is time running out for Tony?

Should you be betting on an early departure? With more calls for David Blunkett to resign and after a week which has seen one Cabinet row after another spilling into the public domain the chances of Tony Blair serving a full third term must be slightly lower. On top of the spats over education policy, smoking, and the reform the benefit system, the attack on Blunkett is particularly damaging – because he is seen as being so close to Blair….

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ICM Tory members’ poll gives Cameron 76%

ICM Tory members’ poll gives Cameron 76%

Punters believe that the 39 year old is a near certainty There’s been an overnight rush to back David Cameron on the betting markets following the publication of the first poll of Tory party members since the end of the MPs’ stage of the leadership selection process. The survey by ICM for the BBC’s Politics Show involved interviews with 215 party members who went for the younger man by more than three to one. The figures were Cameron 76%: Davis…

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YouGov puts Labour 8 points ahead

YouGov puts Labour 8 points ahead

Amended Cameron 4-1 ahead amongst Tory voters The scale of the challenge facing the next Tory leader – whether Davis or Cameron – is reflected in the October YouGov survey for the Telegraph showing that Labour’s lead is unmoved at 8 points over the past month. The shares are LAB 40: CON 32. As yet there is no figure for the Lib Dems available on-line. A consolation for the Tories is that it could be worse. At this stage after…

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