After Libby – will Karl Rove be next?

After Libby – will Karl Rove be next?

It’s 3/1 against him being indicted before December 31st Following tonight’s sensational news that Lewis Libby, chief-of-staff to Dick Cheney, has resigned after being charged with perjury the focus is now on Bush’s closest adviser and architect of last November’s victory, Karl Rove. He has not been charged but the case has not been closed. The Dublin-based international betting exchange, Tradesports, has a market on whether Rove will be indicted before the end of the year.The price is about 3/1…

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Punters getting nervous about a Labour 4th term

Punters getting nervous about a Labour 4th term

Chances rated at lowest level since the General Election After a week which has seen highly publicised cabinet splits over education policy and smoking and a month that has been dominated by the Tory leadership race there’s been a move against Labour on the betting markets. The chart shows the implied probability of Labour winning most seats at the next General Election based on best betting prices. A month ago Labour was rated at 66-67% – this morning the figure…

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Davis boosts his team – but is it too late?

Davis boosts his team – but is it too late?

How do they campaign now the media has lost interest A week ago Davis and Cameron were dominating the headlines and almost everything they said and did was being reported and analysed. Now it’s old news and it’s becoming harder and harder for either to get a message through. There will probably be renewed interest a week today when the two appear together on Question Time but it’s hard seeing that publicity boost to the contest lasting. It’s in this…

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The Oxford stranglehold continues

The Oxford stranglehold continues

When are grads of other universities going to get a look in? The first stop on the David Davis campaign trail was to his old university – Warwick – a move designed to make the point that he was not part of the Tory Oxford “mafia” which has been dominating leadership battles for decades. A month ago when Cameron seemed out of the race it looked as though the Tory showdown would be between Clarke of Cambridge and Davis. Then…

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How dangerous is it for Blair if the Tories agree with him?

How dangerous is it for Blair if the Tories agree with him?

Could NuLab be forced into playing a different tune? A key part of the success of Tony Blair’s New Labour has been the way it has occupied traditional Tory policy positions thus forcing the official opposition to the right. Time and time again the Tories have found themselves with little to say on an issue because Labour has adopted their position. This might be about to change. For the current debate over Labour’s education reform programme is giving a glimpse…

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So how big will Dave’s victory be?

So how big will Dave’s victory be?

Can Cameron get more than 80% of the membership vote? With Cameron looking an odds-on certainty to succeed Michael Howard there’s a new market on the share of the vote that he’ll get in the membership ballot. Given that the current best conventional bookie price on him winning is 1/10 why not try a different bet where the returns could be higher. You can get an attractive price with Paddy Power’s “what will Cameron’s vote share be” punt. The prices…

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Who’ll push PB.C past the 100,000 milestone?

Who’ll push PB.C past the 100,000 milestone?

Tory race helps push the site’s comments’ total into six figures At some point in the next 24 hours somebody is going to post a comment on the site which will be the 100,000th since PB.C came into being in March 2004. As of time of this article the total number stood at 99,679 so we are almost at the point where the total is in six figures. More than 92,000 of the postings have been made since the start…

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Could the Tory race affect the Labour succession?

Could the Tory race affect the Labour succession?

Brown’s price eases from 0.23/1 to o.4/1 As the chart shows the implied probability of Gordon Brown succeeding Tony Blair, based on the best betting price, has moved sharply since the high-spot of the Chancellor’s speech at the Brighton conference just a month ago. Although this is a very light market with little liquidity it is clear that there the near certainty that last month’s 0.23/1 Brown price suggested has been affected by what has been going on in the…

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