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Punters dump Campbell after lacklustre PMQ debut

11/1/2006 Editor

Commons appearance raises doubts on the interim leader When Sir Menzies Campbell became interim leader of the Lib Dems on Saturday afternoon he must have thought that being in the job would play a big part in helping him in the leadership election campaign. It certainly gave him an opportunity to shine because this afternoon he was able stand in the Lib Dem leader’s position at Prime Minister’s Questions. The general verdict was that his performance was “lacklustre” and some…

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Could Gordon go the way of David and Charles?

11/1/2006 Editor

Brown “next leader price” continues to ease Until the start of October it looked almost certain that the party leader line-up for the next General Election would be David Davis, Charles Kennedy and Gordon Brown. There was no specific betting market on this notion but Davis was a heavy odds-on favourite to take over from Michael Howard, Kennedy had seen off the doubters after a rather troubled party conference and the best price you could have got on Gordon Brown…

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Lib Dems drop 3 points with Populus

10/1/2006 Editor

Could the collapse encourage a Campbell Coronation? The January Populus Poll is out in the Times this morning and shows CON 36 (+1): LAB 39 (+1): LD 16 (-3). So the big move since before Christmas has been away from the Lib Dems. This is likely to have a big impact on the party’s MPs as they consider whether to nominate another candidate so that there is a contest. Would a protracted leadership election provide a poll boost like that…

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Will Hughes and Oaten risk being humiliated?

9/1/2006 Editor

Revised YouGov figures reinforce their dilemma With Charles Kennedy calling for a contest to decide his replacement the party President, Simon Hughes, and the party’s Home Affairs spokesman, Mark Oaten have yet to say whether they want to fight Menzies Campell to join David Cameron and Tony Blair in the line line-up of main party leaders. With the best price available on Menzies Campbell being just 0.53/1 punters have made the 64 year old Edinburgh lawyer a strong favourite. His…

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Lib Dems down to 16% with BPIX

8/1/2006 Editor

But why won’t the pollster answer any questions? The pollster for the Mail on Sunday, BPIX, reports a big drop in support for the Lib Dems in a survey this morning which is not available online. Its shares are with comparisons on the last published BPIX poll in November are CON 38 (+3): LAB 38(+1): LD 16 (-4). BPIX is not listed as a member of the British Polling Council and has never responded to my requests for information about…

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Meanwhile, back with Labour & the Tories…

8/1/2006 Editor

…the General Election gap is closing While all the focus has been on the Lib Dem leadership the question of which party will win most seats at the General Election, as reflected by the best betting exchange prices, continues to see the Tories narrowing the gap with Labour. The current implied probability, based on best prices, has Labour on 53.7% and the Tories at 46.7%. Note that the betting is on which party wins most seats and not on whether…

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The money goes on Ming

7/1/2006 Editor

Will he be returned uncontested? After this afternoon’s dramatic resignation from the Lib Dem leadership by Charles Kennedy the money has been going on the 64 year old ex-international sprinter, Sir Menzies Campbell to win the contest to replace him. Just two hours after Kennedy’s announcement the best bookmaker price available on Campbell was 8/15 with 0.51/1 being available on Betfair. Campbell is the only person to formally declare his candidature and has received endorsements by a number of senior…

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YouGov: Members divide 65-27 against Kennedy

7/1/2006 Editor

Survey has Campbell 49%: Oaten 14%: Hughes 21% Any resididual hope that Lib Dem members might save the day for Charles Kennedy are dashed this morning in a YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph. In a survey restricted to just members of the party the provisional results show that 65% want a new leader for the General Election with just 27% saying he should stay. The poll is also a severe blow to leadership hopefuls Simon Hughes and Mark Oaten….

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