Are his supporters trying to influence the race through the betting? In the early hours of this morning there was a big move back to Menzies Campbell on the Betfair betting exchange and a major easing of the Simon Hughes price. From what I can ascertain there is no apparent reason – there does not appear to be anything in the papers. At 11pm last night Ming’s price was at about 1.62/1 with Hughes on 1.32/1. The latest price as…
JACKY ASHLEY WARNING: I am not a member of what Jackie Ashley in the Guardian regards as the time-served officially recognised commentariat and any views on political outcomes contained herein should be treated accordingly. Are the markets over-rating Hughes? A challenging factor for the growing number of punters on the Lib Dem race is that the only hard information we have is the YouGov poll that was published in the Daily Telegraph a few hours before Charles Kennedy made his…
PB.C party-goers discuss the chances Saturday’s second PB.C party attracted 40+ site regulars including Anthony Wells, founder of UK Polling Report, Guido Fawkes and Ian Dale, the owner of Politicos and who served as David Davis’s chief of staff. Clearly the Lib Dem leadership race was a key discussion point with many of the Tories there saying the candidate that they most feared was the former MEP, Nick Clegg, who is not a candidate and has come out strongly for…
ICM puts the Tories four points ahead As the chart, reproduced from today’s News of the World shows, the first ICM poll of 2006 provides further evidence that the Tory turnaround which started with the election of David Cameron continues to gather force. The voting intentions (with changes since ICM’s last poll in December) are CON 39%(+2): LAB 35%(-1): LD 20%(-1). The poll is excellent news for the Tories and is also reassuring for the Lib Dems which had seen…
Another way of looking at the survey information With the big question in British politics today being how the Tories are doing under their new leader the opinion polls are being scrutinised more closely than usual. In the raw data for this week’s Times poll a total of 229 respondents told Populus that they had voted Tory at the General Election – just eight months ago. But 277 people in the survey, in excess of fifth more, said they would…
Don’t back anybody supported by these three Introducing Mike Hancock, John Hemming and Paul Rowen – the three Lib Dem MPs who are said to be coming to the rescue of leadership candidates who cannot find fellow MPs to nominate them. Under the contest rules agreed only in September 2005 all candidates have to have the support of 10% of the parliamentary party before they can get on the ballot. At the time it was seen as a way of…
After what must surely be the busiest day of betting ever on a Lib Dem leadership contest the party president, Simon Hughes has now moved into the favourite slot – ahead of the early well backed former odds-on favourite – the 64 year old Ming Campbell. But the betting sensation of the past 36 hours, the former Euro MP who has only been at Westminster for nine months, Chris Huhne is now well established as third favourite. The day has…
From 300/1 to 16/1 in just 24 hours In one of the most staggering political betting moves ever the price on the former Guardian and Indy journalist, Chris Huhne, becoming Lib Dem leader has, as the chart shows, tightened from 300/1 to just 16/1 in the course of 24 hours. Behind this market activity was a growing view, reinforced by his appearance at Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday, that Sir Menzies Campbell, the 64 year-old interim leader may not be the…