Take the 6/1 that Charles will survive until May 1st With the Lib Dem leader facing the threat of resignations from his Shadow Cabinet if he continues to hold onto his office one bookie is now taking bets on who will be leading the party on May 1st – the week of the local elections. Favourite is Menzies Campbell at 5/4 with the price of 7/2 for Simon Hughes and Mark Oaten. Charles Kennedy comes fourth in the betting at…
Under the heading “He’s finished as leader, and the party should tell him so” Peter Riddel writes in the Times:- “CHARLES KENNEDY is finished as Liberal Democrat leader. It is only a question of time. He put himself and his future before the long-term interests of his party. His decision to appeal over the heads of his 62 MPs to the 73,000 party members in the country on a “put-up-or-shut-up†appeal guarantees lasting bitterness and division, even if he wins…
William Hills make him only second favourite for his own job An evening of excitement following Charles Kennedy’s dramatic announcement about his drink problem and his desire for another contest has thrown open the betting. This complicated by the fact that the main markets that exist are on who will be the NEXT leader – not who will win this latest contest. William Hill have just announced a market on who will win this contest. On this Kennedy has been…
The Daily Telegraph is not happy It was this site in May 2005 that first talked of the Tories having a “clause 4 moment”. Then we used it in the context of choosing Ken Clarke which we thought would have “symbolic importance” because of the long Tory history of splits over the EU. The way that the new Tory leader has decided to make the NHS the subject of his first major policy pronouncement reflects his desire to make this…
Will weighting changes knock 2-3% off Labour’s position? With the chances of Labour winning most seats at the next election down to just 53% on the betting markets could we see further price changes if the polls continue to show a Tory recovery? The next scheduled poll is from Populus early next week and punters should treat the headline results with some care until we have had time to analyse the detail because we might be about to see a…
Would a local election disaster put added pressure on Blair? With leadership issues affecting all three main parties the local elections on May 4th could be crucial. Will the Cameron leadership come successfully through its first electoral test?; can Labour losses be restricted to acceptable levels? and will the Lib Dems continue to make advances in local government? In the four years since there were elections in most of the 6,000 or so council seats at stake the political climate…
Betting options dry up on Menzies If the reported plans of a “senior group of Lib Dem MPs” come to fruition then we could see Sir Menzies Campbell in place as Leader of the party within a matter of weeks. According to reports over the holiday weekend the party’s 64 year old Foreign Affairs spokesman is being lined up replace Charles Kennedy in a putsch. The idea is to present Kennedy with a list of signatures calling on him to…
A round-up of the main markets General Election – most seats. Normal bookmakers – LAB 4/7: CON 11/8. Betting exchanges – LAB 0.87/1: CON 1.16/1. IG Binary spread market. LAB 52-58: CON 42-48. Labour has eased considerably since the emergence of David Cameron and Tony Blair’s first ever Commons defeat. On October 10th, we suggested in anticipation of the “Cameron media love-in, that people should sell Labour the exchange price stood at 0.57/1. General Election – Commons seat spreads. Cantor…