Will the next by-election be decided on Betfair?

Will the next by-election be decided on Betfair?

Could a “favourite” be artificially created on the betting markets? The strange goings-on with the Huhne betting price during the final weeks of the Lib Dem race raise the question of whether party supporters with deep pockets could influence the course of a Westminster by-election. For in these contests a party has to establish itself as the undisputed challenger – an area of activity where the Lib Dems reign supreme. Any information, however tenuous, is used to get over that…

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PB.C entrants beat the betting markets and the Guardian

PB.C entrants beat the betting markets and the Guardian

How did the predictors do? In our Lib Dem prediction competition, pregethwr has narrowly won from bigbucksbetty to take the coveted PB.C Lib Dem leadership competition trophy for 2006. The top five places went to:- 1. pregethwr (post 86) 1.75 points 2. bigbucksbetty (134) 1.93 3. Vino (114) 2.17 4. Dan (170) 2.57 5. Baskerville (53) 2.67 The winning entry was Campbell to be the leader getting 44.9% of the first preferences and 56.3% of the votes after the Hughes…

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The man who beat the internet pollster

The man who beat the internet pollster

So what happened to YouGov? After weeks of arguing and analysis the big loser this afternoon must be YouGov. After the extraordinary successes in in getting the Tory leadership battles of 2001 and 2005 right today’s victory by a 14% margin by Ming Campbell must put a big question mark over membership polls. The 56.9 to 43.1 vote split compared with the Huhne 52% to Campbell 48% share that YouGov was predicting. With the favourite slot changing hands five times…

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Will today’s winner decide the General Election aftermath?

Will today’s winner decide the General Election aftermath?

It’s 1.08/1 on a Hung Parliament With the next Lib Dem leader due to be announced this afternoon a new Betfair market has opened on whether the next General Election will result in a hung Parliament. After pressure from several PB.C regulars the betting exchange has created a market that looks set to be the busiest in the run-up to the next election. The options are LAB Majority (2.25/1) CON Majority (3.1/1) HUNG parliament (1.08/1). At this stage just after…

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The final PB.C betting chart on the Lib Dem race

The final PB.C betting chart on the Lib Dem race

As a matter of record here is the final betting chart on the 2006 Lib Dem leadership race. This is based on the implied probability of victory based on the best betting prices. I like them because they do graphically illustrate changing perceptions over time. For all but four and a half weeks since the polls closed on May 5th 2005 we have had a leadership race taking place and our traffic has increased so that on most weekdays more…

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That secret YouGov poll – the final postscript

That secret YouGov poll – the final postscript

Were respondees conditioned to put Ming number one? With, thankfully, just a few hours to go before the Lib Dem ballot closes the acting leader, Ming Campbell, is now now firmly back in the favourite slot. All the sentiment today has been in his favour and against Chris Huhne who has been odds-on since the only public YouGov members’ poll three weeks ago put him 4% ahead. Part of the weakening of the Huhne position has been based on the…

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Ming backers should check out this Tory poll

Ming backers should check out this Tory poll

Why I’m sticking with YouGov? With a sharp move back to Ming Campbell on the Lib Dem betting markets there’s a lot of focus on the one members’ poll that has been published during the campaign – the survey by YouGov commissioned by a rich Huhne supporter. This showed on first preferences Huhne: 38%: Campbell 34%: Hughes 27%. The run-off figures based on second preferences, eliminating Hughes were Huhne 52%: Campbell 48%. Much has been made of the fact that…

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The PB.C Lib Dem Leadership Prediction Competition

The PB.C Lib Dem Leadership Prediction Competition

Paul Maggs has devised and will manage the following competition. Simply predict: 1. Who the new leader will be? 2. The percentage of the first preference votes your predicted new leader wins 3. The percentage of the overall votes (after re-distribution of second preferences) your predicted new leader wins You may make your predictions to one decimal place Scoring Your score will be the difference between your prediction and the actual result at both stages of the voting (regardless of…

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